Welcome to the 18th edition of Unpacked, our monthly series where we take a deep dive into a company. This time, we’re taking a closer look at Sea Limited — a leading global technology company, connecting millions of consumers through e-commerce, digital financial services, and online gaming, with a strong presence in Southeast Asia.

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We explore its history and business model, and highlight the latest developments.

We also conduct a detailed fundamental analysis of the company’s management, market position, financials, and growth estimates. We score each area separately, leading to a final score between 0 and 100. This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe the company is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

The goal? To give you a full deep dive into this company, as a complement to your own research, so you can decide if it’s the right investment for you.

Now let’s unpack the fundamentals of Sea Limited and see how we score it!

History and Business Model

Sea Limited was founded in 2009 in Singapore by Forrest Li, together with co-founders Gang Ye and David Chen. Li was born in China and moved to Singapore after completing his MBA at Stanford University. The company was originally called Garena and focused on online gaming.

At the time, online gaming was growing quickly in Southeast Asia, but international game developers struggled to reach local players. Garena saw an opportunity and started bringing popular games, including “League of Legends”, to the region.

In 2010, Chinese technology giant Tencent invested in Garena, helping the company grow. The gaming business also gave Garena valuable experience in technology, digital payments and reaching millions of consumers.

In 2014, Garena entered digital payments with AirPay, initially in Vietnam and Thailand. A year later, in 2015, it launched Shopee, an online shopping platform built for smartphones. Shopee grew quickly by investing heavily in advertising, discounts, free shipping and delivery services, competing with companies like Lazada.

In 2017, Garena changed its name to Sea Limited, showing its move beyond gaming. That same year, the company went public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SE, raising around $1 billion at $15 per share.

Source: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), October 20, 2017.

Also in 2017, Garena launched Free Fire, its own mobile game. It became a huge success in emerging markets and was the world’s most downloaded mobile game in 2019 and 2020. Profits from gaming helped fund Shopee’s rapid expansion.

In 2019, Shopee expanded into Brazil, while Sea brought its digital financial services together under the SeaMoney brand.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 accelerated Sea’s growth as more people shopped online, used digital payments and played mobile games. Sea became one of Southeast Asia’s most valuable technology companies, with its share price climbing above $350 in 2021.

But in 2022, growth slowed, competition increased and losses grew. Sea’s share price dropped more than 80% from its peak. The company responded by cutting costs, reducing marketing expenses, laying off employees and leaving several international markets.

The turnaround worked. In 2023, Sea reported its first full year of positive net income, an important milestone after years of heavy investments.

In 2024 and 2025, Sea returned to stronger growth while keeping costs under control. Shopee expanded further in Southeast Asia and Brazil, while financial services became a bigger part of the business. In 2025, SeaMoney was renamed Monee, bringing payments, consumer loans and digital banking under one brand.

Today, Sea Limited operates three main businesses: Shopee, Monee and Garena. Together, they connect millions of consumers and businesses through online shopping, financial services and gaming.

Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations

What started as a gaming company in Singapore has become one of Southeast Asia’s largest technology companies, with a growing presence in Latin America.

Its official mission is:

“To better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology.”

Business Model Explained

Sea Limited has three main businesses: Shopee (online shopping), Monee (financial services), and Garena (gaming). Together, they serve millions of consumers and businesses.

🛍️ 1. Shopee
Shopee is Sea’s largest business and one of Southeast Asia’s leading online shopping platforms. It is also growing in Brazil. Shopee connects buyers and sellers without owning most of the products sold. It makes money through:

• Seller Fees: Commissions and fees paid by sellers when they sell products.

• Advertising: Sellers pay to promote their products.

• Delivery Services: Revenue from shipping and delivering orders.

• Direct Sales: Revenue from products Shopee sells itself.

As more people shop on Shopee, more sellers join the platform, giving customers more products to choose from.

💳 2. Monee
Monee helps consumers and businesses make payments, borrow money, and use banking services. It started with online payments but has grown into a much larger financial business.

Monee makes money mainly from interest and fees on loans, as well as payment services. Lending is an important growth opportunity, but there is also a risk that customers cannot repay their loans.

🎮 3. Garena
Garena develops and publishes online games, with Free Fire as its biggest success. Most games are free to play, but players can spend money on virtual items, outfits, and other in-game content.

Gaming can be very profitable because digital products can be sold to millions of players without the costs of making and shipping physical products.

An important strength of Sea’s business model is how Shopee and Monee support each other. More shopping creates more opportunities for payments and loans. Easier access to financial services can also help customers spend more. Garena adds another source of income through gaming, helping Sea grow its business and invest in new opportunities.

Revenue Breakdown

On November 10, 2026, Sea Limited reported its Q3 2026 results. Total revenue reached $8.58 billion (+43.4% YoY), with growth in all three businesses. Net income increased 34.0% to $502.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $931.3 million (+28.9% YoY).

Sea reports its revenue through three main businesses:

🛍️ Shopee – $6.07 billion (71%)
Sea’s largest business, generating revenue from seller fees, advertising, delivery services, and direct product sales. Revenue grew 41.3% YoY, with total orders increasing 25.5% to 4.5 billion. The total value of products sold on Shopee reached $39.7 billion (+23.3% YoY).

💳 Monee – $1.62 billion (19%)
Sea’s fastest-growing business, generating most of its revenue from consumer and business loans. Revenue increased 63.9% YoY, with total loans reaching $12.6 billion (+60.0% YoY). The 90+ day non-performing loan ratio increased from 1.1% to 1.3% year-over-year.

🎮 Garena – $840 million (10%)
Sea’s gaming business, earning revenue mostly from in-game purchases. Revenue grew 28.6% YoY, with 671.7 million active users and 68.6 million paying users during the quarter. Bookings increased 5.9% YoY to $890 million.

Other services accounted for 0.6% of total revenue.

Sea’s revenue grew 43.4% in Q3 2026, compared with 34.0% net income growth. Higher marketing expenses (+64.0%) and credit losses (+82.3%) continued to put pressure on profit margins.

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Recent Developments

Sea Limited has announced several important developments over the past year. Here are the key developments:

1️⃣ Possible Monee IPO
In October, Sea shared plans for a possible IPO of Monee, its financial services business. A separate listing could help Monee raise money for future growth and give investors a clearer picture of its value. No IPO date or valuation has been announced.

2️⃣ Sea Cloud & NVIDIA Partnership
In October, Sea announced plans for Sea Cloud, a new AI-focused cloud business. Sea wants to use the technology it developed for Shopee, Monee, and Garena to help other companies build and run AI applications.

In September, Sea also announced plans to use NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform, becoming one of the first companies in Southeast Asia to adopt the technology. Sea Cloud could create a new source of revenue, but the business is still at an early stage.

3️⃣ Shopee vs. TikTok Shop
Competition in Southeast Asia’s online shopping market continues to increase, with TikTok Shop growing quickly. Shopee is investing in discounts, faster deliveries, and customer loyalty to protect its position. TikTok Shop is attracting more customers through short videos and live shopping, giving Shopee a strong competitor in its home market.

4️⃣ Google AI Partnership & Agentic Shopping
In February this year, Sea expanded its partnership with Google to develop AI tools for Shopee, Monee, and Garena. One project is an AI shopping assistant for Shopee that could help customers search for products and complete purchases with less effort. Sea is also exploring AI tools for game development, payments, and customer service.

In October, Sea announced another partnership with Google’s AI Futures Fund, giving its teams access to advanced AI technology and support.

The agentic shopping project is still under development, with no confirmed public launch.

5️⃣ Shopee’s Expansion in Brazil
Brazil has become an important market for Shopee outside Southeast Asia. Sea is investing in faster deliveries, local sellers, and more international brands to attract customers and compete with companies like MercadoLibre and Amazon. Brazil could become an important part of Shopee’s long-term international growth.

Source: Click Petróleo e Gás

6️⃣ Monee’s AI-Powered Lending
Monee is using AI to improve how it decides which customers qualify for loans. The technology helps Monee review loan applications, understand customer behavior, and identify potential risks. This could help Monee reach more customers and make better lending decisions, but managing credit risk remains important.

7️⃣ ShopeeVIP+ & Netflix Partnership
In September, Shopee introduced ShopeeVIP+, a paid membership program that combines shopping benefits with access to Netflix. The service was launched in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, with benefits such as free shipping, discounts, and entertainment. The goal is to encourage customers to shop more often and build stronger customer loyalty.

Source: Shopee Philippines, September 2026.

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Fundamental Analysis

Now it’s time for the fundamental analysis of Sea Limited.

In this section, we evaluate three key areas: management, market, and financials & growth estimates. Each area contains multiple elements and each element is scored individually, leading to a final score between 0 and 100.

Final Scoring

This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe Sea Limited is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

Unlock our scoring framework and full fundamental analysis below, and see how we score Sea Limited on a scale from 0 to 100 — exclusively available to our paid members! ✨

First, let’s walk through our scoring framework 📊👇

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Hey Investor!

It’s time for the 4th edition of The Future Investors Awards 🏆

Just like last year, we have 12 exciting categories, from Best Fintech Company and Best AI Company to Best CEO and Stock of the Year!

Who deserves to take home the trophies this year? That’s up to you! 🗳️

Ready to vote? Make your picks below!

VOTE NOW!

Want to see who's nominated? Explore all 12 categories, this year's nominees, and the previous winners below! 👇

Voting is open until November 22
The winners will be revealed from December 7–13! 🏆

#1: Best Fintech Company

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Hey Investor,

Our Best Buys for November are here 🎯

Each month, we look for great companies trading at attractive valuations and highlight three stocks that currently stand out to us.

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Since December 2024, we’ve shared 69 Best Buys with our paid subscribers. Some of our picks have delivered incredible returns 🔥

🚀 AMD: picked at $97.35, now +400%
🚀 ASML: picked at $662.63, now +135%
🚀 Alphabet: picked at $168.95, now +65%

We focus on high-quality businesses with strong fundamentals trading at attractive valuations. As Warren Buffett famously said:

“It’s better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Learn more about how we score stocks on fundamentals in our Fundamental Scoring Framework article.

To keep looking for the best opportunities, we don't pick the same Best Buy two months in a row.

Now let’s dive into our Top 3 Best Buys for November ✨👇

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

#3: Sea Limited (NYSE: SE)

Our first Best Buy for November is Sea Limited. This is the third time we’ve featured Sea Limited in our Best Buys, following December 2025 and April 2026.

Today, the stock trades at an even lower price than during our previous picks. It’s now more than 52% below its 52-week high and nearly 80% below its all-time high from October 2021. Back then, Sea Limited was trading at an extremely high valuation that was difficult to justify, even with its strong growth potential. Today, the situation is very different.

Sea Limited has grown into a much stronger business, with Shopee expanding its e-commerce operations, Monee growing rapidly in digital financial services, and Garena generating strong profits from its gaming business.

We see an interesting opportunity for long-term investors who want exposure to Southeast Asia’s growing digital economy.

What Happened?

In August, Sea reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, up an impressive 48.1% year over year, beating expectations. That’s exceptional growth for a company already generating billions in quarterly revenue. Shopee grew 48.2%, Monee 58.9%, and Garena 33.5%. But earnings were lower than expected because of higher marketing costs and credit losses.

Last month, investors became worried about Shopee’s growth in Southeast Asia. Indonesia, Shopee’s largest market, was under pressure, and the Indonesian rupiah weakened. DBS Bank warned that Shopee’s Q3 GMV could be 2–3% below expectations, because of currency changes and growing competition from PDD Holdings in Malaysia and Singapore.

According to Cube Asia, Shopee’s GMV grew 24% to $53.9 billion in H1 2026, with a 55% share of the three leading e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia. TikTok Shop grew much faster, with GMV jumping 93% to $37.8 billion, reaching a 39% market share. This could force Shopee to spend more on discounts and promotions, reducing its profits.

Source: Cube Asia (Tradewinds H1 2026). Lazada GMV estimated.

Another reason for the sell-off was a letter from CEO Forrest Li, announcing plans to launch Sea Cloud, offering AI-powered cloud services to other businesses. Sea has already built much of this technology for its own operations. This could create a new source of revenue, but investors worry about the costs and their impact on profits.

Li also revealed that Sea is considering a separate IPO for Monee, its fast-growing digital financial services business. This could help Monee fund its own growth and make its value clearer to investors. But it also raises questions about Sea’s future structure and how much of Monee’s growth would benefit existing shareholders.

Why Sea Limited Looks Attractive Now

Sea Limited scores 72 points in our Fundamental Scorecard, placing it in our 🟢 Quality category. The company is founder-led, has strong management, and holds leading positions in Southeast Asia’s e-commerce, digital financial services, and gaming markets.

With Shopee, Monee, and Garena, Sea has several ways to grow, with Sea Cloud potentially becoming a fourth growth opportunity. Southeast Asia’s growing middle class, increasing internet usage, and shift toward online shopping and digital payments create plenty of opportunities for long-term growth. Sea is already a market leader, but the region’s digital economy still has a long way to grow.

And the valuation? Sea currently trades at a P/E of 29.1, with a forward P/E of just 17.8. Analysts expect revenue to grow at a 25% CAGR and EPS at a 28% CAGR over the coming years. Those are strong growth expectations for a company trading at less than 18 times forward earnings.

The free cash flow valuation stands out too. Sea trades at a P/FCF of just 11.0, equivalent to a 9.1% FCF yield. That's just 11 times its annual free cash flow, with strong revenue and earnings growth expected in the coming years.

For us, the combination of a quality score of 72, strong growth expectations, and these valuation multiples makes Sea Limited an attractive Best Buy for November.

Only Vincent currently holds a position in Sea Limited.

Fundamental Score: 72 🟢 → Quality
Current Stock Price: $76.80

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The next two? Two of the best businesses in the world, now trading at very attractive valuations.

🚀 One dominates AI computing with an unmatched ecosystem.
🌍 The other runs a global digital empire with an incredible moat.

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October was a tough month, especially for tech and AI stocks 📉, but the S&P 500 held up relatively well.

In this recap, we look at what moved the markets, how the major indexes performed, how our portfolios compared to the market, our biggest winners and losers, and the changes we made during the month.

Dive into our full October Recap below 👇

📢 Our Best Buys for November are coming next week. Don’t miss them! 🎯

What Moved the Markets in October

October started strong, with TSMC, Nvidia and cybersecurity companies reaching new all-time highs. Apple also hit a market value of $5 trillion for the first time. But tech stocks, especially those linked to AI, came under pressure later in the month as investors questioned the huge amounts being spent on AI. The S&P 500 held up relatively well.

Earnings season brought mixed results. TSMC, ASML, SK hynix, SpaceX and Microsoft reported strong results. SK hynix also warned that memory shortages could last until 2030. Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, Adyen, Netflix and ServiceNow disappointed with parts of their results or outlooks. Adyen cut its 2026 EBITDA margin forecast to around 50% and dropped its 2028 margin target.

Cloud revenue continued to grow rapidly, with Microsoft Azure up 48%, AWS 39% and Google Cloud 103% year over year. But investors also questioned the huge costs of building AI infrastructure. Neocloud companies such as CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN and Applied Digital came under pressure over concerns about debt, financing costs and AI data center spending. Elon Musk also warned that many neocloud providers could fail or be forced to merge.

There was plenty of AI news. Microsoft unveiled its new Maia 300 AI chip, AMD introduced its Helios AI platform, and SK hynix presented MARS, a new technology for AI memory systems. Marvell sees a $400 billion TAM by 2030 and is targeting $70–90 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2031.

Anthropic filed for an IPO under the ticker ANT, with a possible November listing at a valuation of $1.5–2 trillion. The company also made headlines as SpaceX’s largest customer, accounting for around 34.5% of its Q3 revenue.

Tesla unveiled its new flying Roadster, and there was talk about a possible Tesla–SpaceX merger, an idea supported by Elon Musk.

In Brazil, President Lula unexpectedly won the election against Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of the vote. Brazilian stocks and ETFs fell hard, putting pressure on companies such as Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre.

Sea Limited also struggled as investors worried about Indonesia’s market, potentially weaker Shopee GMV, Monee’s possible IPO and its expansion into cloud services.

In the payments industry, Visa received approval to prepare for a domestic payment network in China, a potential new growth opportunity.

October also saw several big acquisitions. Schneider Electric agreed to buy PTC for $22.6 billion, DoorDash announced a $17 billion Instacart deal, Uber acquired ezCater, and Salesforce agreed to buy Braze for $5.7 billion.

Finally, Applied Materials increased its stake in BESI from 9% to around 20%, and Marvell is in talks to acquire Lumentum, which could expand its position in optical networking for AI data centers.

How did the markets react to the biggest news in October? Here’s how the three major indexes performed this month:

• S&P 500: -0.9% 📉 (+10.7% YTD)

• Nasdaq: -5.3% 📉 (+9.4% YTD)

• Dow Jones: +1.7% 📈 (+7.7% YTD)

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Portfolio Performance: How Did We Do?

How did our portfolios perform in October?

We compare our performance with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, look at our biggest winners and losers, and walk you through the portfolio changes we made during October.

Dive into the full recap below 👇
Available exclusively for our paid subscribers ✨

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All eyes are on US tech. Companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon have become some of the world’s most valuable businesses. And it’s easy to see why. The US is home to many of the biggest names in technology. But what about Europe?

Europe is often overlooked by tech investors. But is that justified? After all, Europe has a few well-known tech companies, like ASML, SAP, Arm and Spotify. Still, compared to the US, the number of major tech companies is much smaller.

Which smaller European tech companies could join them as the next generation of tech leaders?

In this Insights article, we’ll start with the state of European tech today before revealing our 5 favorite companies for the future.

Here’s what we’ll cover:
🇪🇺 How European tech stocks compare with the US
🏢 Europe’s 10 biggest tech companies today
🤖 Europe’s role in AI and its future opportunities
🏆 Our 5 favorite European tech stocks for the future

🇪🇺 Europe vs. the US

The US is by far the largest market for publicly listed tech companies. But how big is the gap with Europe? Let’s start with the numbers.

According to Atomico’s State of European Tech 2025 report, European listed tech companies have a combined market value of $1.7 trillion, compared with $37 trillion on US stock exchanges. That’s a difference of almost 22 times.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, via Atomico’s State of European Tech 2025

But the difference isn’t just about market size. American tech stocks have also delivered much higher returns. Over the past decade, the MSCI USA Information Technology Index gained 827.7%, compared with 343.6% for the MSCI Europe Information Technology Index.

That’s an average annual return of 25.2% for US tech stocks, compared with 16.2% for European tech stocks. Both delivered excellent returns, but US tech stocks clearly outperformed.

Source: MSCI — MSCI USA IT Index vs. MSCI Europe IT Technology Index

These indices focus on the Information Technology sector, so not all tech-related companies are covered.

Europe’s tech market is also more divided, with 36 stock exchanges, compared with just 6 in the US. Nasdaq and NYSE alone account for 99% of US-listed tech market value, making it easier for companies to attract investors.

The investment gap is also huge. According to Rothschild & Co, US companies raised $440 billion in growth equity funding during the first nine months of 2026, compared with $66.9 billion in Europe. That’s more than six times as much.

So why does the US attract so much more money? American companies have better access to capital and a large domestic market, making it easier to grow. In Europe, different national rules, languages and tax systems make it harder for tech companies to grow. Access to funding is also more limited.

But there’s good news for Europe too. Europe's venture-backed tech companies reached a combined value of $4.4 trillion in 2026, up from around $550 billion in 2015, based on Dealroom data. This includes public, private and acquired companies. Europe also has more than 4.6 million tech workers and continues to produce new startups.

Europe has the talent and the ideas. The challenge is helping more companies grow into global businesses. And that could create interesting opportunities for long-term investors.

🏢 Europe's Tech Giants

Europe may be much smaller than the US when it comes to tech, but it is still home to some of the world’s leading technology companies. From chips and software to automation and energy technology, European companies play an important role in many industries.

Which European technology companies are the biggest today? Let’s take a look 👇

Source: Koyfin — Market capitalization, October 2026 (USD)

A few things stand out. ASML is by far Europe’s most valuable tech company, worth more than twice as much as SAP. Germany, the Netherlands and the UK are well represented, with companies like Siemens, Prosus and Arm.

Europe is strong in chips, software and industrial technology. Many of these companies also play an important role in AI, from making advanced chips to providing the power and cooling systems needed for AI data centers.

But how important is Europe in the AI boom, and where are the biggest opportunities?

🤖 Europe and the AI Boom

AI is changing the tech industry, and Europe wants to play a bigger role. The US is home to AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, but Europe is also building its own AI companies.

France’s Mistral AI develops AI models and chatbots that compete with American companies like OpenAI. Valued at $24 billion, it is one of Europe’s most valuable private AI companies and is backed by ASML.

ElevenLabs ($22 billion), founded by two Polish entrepreneurs, develops AI voices that can turn text into realistic speech. Germany’s Helsing ($18 billion) uses AI in military drones, aircraft and other defense systems.

The UK’s Wayve develops AI that helps cars drive themselves. Nscale ($14.6 billion) builds large AI data centers and provides the computing power companies need to train and run AI models. British-founded Fluidstack ($18 billion), now based in the US, provides access to powerful GPUs for AI companies.

These companies are privately held, so investors cannot buy their shares on public stock exchanges. But they show that Europe is already producing AI companies worth billions of dollars.

Source: Multiples.vc — Private company valuations, October 2026 (USD)

Last week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang went on an AI tour across Europe, visiting Paris, London, Stockholm and Dublin before ending at GTC Berlin. During the tour, Nvidia announced new investments and partnerships to help grow Europe’s AI industry. Huang spoke about Europe’s strengths in engineering, manufacturing and robotics. He believes Europe could play an important role in Physical AI, as AI becomes part of factories, machines and robots.

Nvidia has committed nearly $10 billion to Europe’s tech industry and works with more than 12,000 partners across the region.

Jensen had a clear message for Europe:

Europe already has companies helping make this possible. ASML supplies equipment needed to produce advanced chips, Arm designs chip technology, and companies like Siemens, ABB and Schneider Electric help bring AI into factories and data centers.

Europe has some promising AI and tech companies that could become much bigger in the years ahead.

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We’ve looked at how European tech compares with the US, Europe’s biggest tech companies, and its role in the AI boom 🇪🇺

Now it’s time to look ahead. We’ll reveal our 5 favorite European tech stocks that have the potential to become Europe’s next tech leaders 🏆

This content is exclusively available to our paid subscribers ✨

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🏆 Europe’s Next Tech Leaders

Europe has plenty of promising tech companies, but which ones could become the next tech giants?

We’ve selected 5 publicly traded European tech companies outside the current top 10 that we believe have the potential to join Europe’s biggest tech companies in the years ahead.

We’ll count down from #5 to #1, starting with the smallest by market cap.

Let’s get started 👇

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When analyzing a company, you probably focus on revenue growth, profit margins, cash flow, and valuation. And for good reason. But one important factor is often overlooked: management.

The people leading a company set its strategy, decide where to invest its capital, build its culture, and make important decisions about its future. Great management can turn a good business into an exceptional one. Poor management can hold a company back, even if it has strong competitive advantages.

Management quality is much harder to measure than financial performance. So how can you recognize exceptional management?

In this article, you’ll learn:

🎯 Why management is crucial to long-term success
🧠 What separates average from exceptional management
🔍 How to evaluate management quality
🏆 Examples of exceptional leadership in practice
📊 Plus, our exclusive Management Quality Scorecard to help you assess management quality

🎯 Why Management Matters

A company can have great products, a strong market position, and plenty of opportunities to grow. But without the right people making the decisions, even the most promising businesses can struggle.

Management plays a crucial role in a company’s long-term success. The decisions made today can influence its performance for years or even decades. Where should the company invest? Which markets should it enter? Should it focus on growth, improve profitability, or return money to shareholders?

These decisions affect how a business grows, how it competes, and how much value it creates over time. Good management can also drive innovation, helping companies develop new products and stay ahead of competitors. Strong leadership is important during difficult times, such as economic downturns, growing competition, or major changes in technology. And research shows just how big the difference can be.

A February 2026 study by Bain & Company found that founder-led companies in the S&P 500 delivered 2.1x the total shareholder returns of companies without founder leadership since 2015. For technology companies, the difference was even bigger at 2.6x. Even without the technology sector, founder-led companies delivered 1.4x the total shareholder returns of their peers.

Source: Bain & Company (2026), The Magic of Founder-led Companies.

Of course, being founder-led doesn’t automatically mean a company has exceptional management. The research shows a historical relationship, not proof that founder leadership alone explains the higher returns. Strong financial results can also come from favorable market conditions or competitive advantages built years ago. And great leaders don’t always have to be founders.

That’s why you should look beyond financial performance and understand who is leading the company, how they make decisions, and what they’ve achieved over time.

🧠 Average vs. Exceptional Management

Not all management teams are equally good. Some focus on meeting short-term goals and keeping the business running. Others think years ahead, make bold decisions, and build companies that can grow for decades.

But what separates average management from exceptional management?

We believe there are five key qualities you should look for:

Source: The Future Investors — The 5 Key Pillars of Exceptional Management

🔭 1. Vision, Passion & Conviction
Exceptional leaders have a clear vision for the future. They know where they want to take the company and are passionate about making it happen. They don’t simply follow industry trends. They think ahead, see opportunities early, and are willing to make difficult decisions, even when others disagree. But having a vision isn’t enough. Great leaders turn their vision into action and stay focused on their long-term goals.

🤝 2. Founder Mentality & Ownership
Some of the best leaders think and act like owners, not just employees. This is often seen in founder-led companies, where the people running the business have a personal connection to what they’ve built. They care deeply about the business, take responsibility for its success, and make decisions with the company’s long-term future in mind. This mindset is often called a founder mentality. But it isn’t limited to founders. CEOs who didn’t start the company can have the same mindset.

Ownership also matters. When leaders own a meaningful number of shares in the company, their financial interests are more closely connected to those of shareholders. But too much control can also be a risk if nobody is there to challenge their decisions.

💰 3. Capital Allocation & Discipline
One of management’s most important jobs is deciding how to use the company’s money. Should the company invest in new products, expand into new markets, buy another business, buy back shares, or pay dividends?

Exceptional leaders understand that not every opportunity is a good investment. They invest where they expect the best long-term returns and avoid spending money just to make the company bigger. Great capital allocation can create value for shareholders for many years. Poor decisions, such as expensive acquisitions that don’t deliver results, can destroy that value.

❤️ 4. Integrity, People & Culture
Great management isn't just about strategy and financial results. It's also about honesty, trust, and building a strong company culture. Exceptional leaders communicate openly with shareholders, take responsibility when things go wrong, and give credit to their teams when things go right.

They also know that a company’s success depends on its people. Hiring talented employees, keeping them motivated, and creating a culture where new ideas are welcome can make a big difference over time. How leaders treat their employees and shareholders says a lot about the kind of company they’re building.

🎯 5. Execution & Adaptability
A great strategy means little if management can’t execute it. Exceptional leaders turn ambitious plans into real progress. A strong track record also matters. Great leaders have shown over time that they can deliver results, make good decisions, and guide companies through difficult periods. They set clear goals, keep their promises, and show consistent progress over time. But even the best plans sometimes need to change. New competitors, technologies, and customer needs can quickly change an industry.

Strong leaders recognize when something isn’t working. They admit mistakes, learn from them, and are willing to change direction when needed. The best management teams know when to stay focused and when to adapt.

These five qualities often work together. A leader can have a great vision but struggle to deliver results. Another may deliver strong results but make poor decisions about how to invest the company’s money.

Exceptional management isn't about being perfect in every area. It's about consistently making good decisions that help the business grow and create long-term value.

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🔍 How to Evaluate Management Quality

Now that we know what makes management exceptional, the next question is: How can you recognize great leadership?

Unlike revenue growth or profit margins, management quality is difficult to measure. But there are several ways to learn more about the people running a company.

Here are five practical ways to evaluate management quality:

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Welcome to the 17th edition of Unpacked, our monthly series where we take a deep dive into a company. This time, we’re taking a closer look at Booking Holdings — the world’s leading online travel company, connecting millions of travelers with accommodations, flights, rental cars, and other travel experiences across the globe.

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We break down its story, business model, and highlight the latest developments.

Additionally, we do a detailed fundamental analysis, diving into the company’s management, market, financials, and growth estimates. We score each area separately, leading to a final score between 0 and 100. This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe the company is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

The goal? To give you a full deep dive into this company, as a complement to your own research, so you can decide if it’s the right investment for you.

Now let’s unpack the fundamentals of Booking Holdings and see how we score it!

History and Business Model

Booking was founded in 1996 in the Netherlands by Geert-Jan Bruinsma, who started an online hotel reservation website called Bookings.nl. At the time, booking a hotel online was still a new concept. Bruinsma saw an opportunity to use the internet to connect travelers directly with hotels and started the company with a server under his desk.

Source: Web Design Museum - One of the earliest versions of Bookings.nl.

An important part of Booking’s early success was its agent model. Unlike many U.S. competitors, travelers could book online but pay directly at the hotel. The hotel then paid Booking a commission for the reservation. This made online booking easier for travelers and helped Booking attract thousands of independent European hotels.

In 2000, Bookings.nl merged with another Dutch company called Bookings Online and became Booking.com.

Another important growth driver was Google. Around 2003, Booking started using Google AdWords on a large scale to reach people searching for hotels online. This helped Booking grow across Europe.

Booking.com was growing fast, but the company also had cash flow challenges. In 2005, U.S. online travel company Priceline acquired Booking.com for $133 million and later combined it with British hotel platform Active Hotels under the Booking.com brand. The deal became one of the most successful acquisitions in internet history. Booking.com grew across Europe and later around the world, becoming the most important source of growth and profit for its U.S. parent company.

The group continued to expand, buying Agoda in 2007, TravelJigsaw in 2010, which later became Rentalcars.com, KAYAK in 2013, and OpenTable in 2014. Booking.com also moved beyond hotels, adding apartments, vacation homes, flights, rental cars and attractions.

Source: Booking Holdings Corporate Website — Brands.

By 2018, Booking.com had become so important that The Priceline Group changed its name to Booking Holdings and its Nasdaq ticker from PCLN to BKNG.

In 2020, Booking went through its biggest crisis when the COVID-19 pandemic brought global travel almost to a standstill. Bookings fell significantly, but the business recovered strongly as travel returned.

Today, Booking Holdings is one of the world’s largest online travel companies. Its long-term strategy is called the “Connected Trip”: bringing accommodations, flights, rental cars, attractions and other parts of a trip together in one place. AI is becoming an important part of this strategy.

Its official mission is:

“To make it easier for everyone to experience the world.”

Business Model Explained

Booking Holdings helps people find, compare, and book travel services worldwide. Through brands such as Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable, the company connects travelers with hotels, vacation rentals, airlines, rental car companies, and restaurants. Accommodation bookings are its largest business, but Booking wants customers to organize their entire trip through its platforms.

At the center of its business are three activities:

🏨 1. Accommodation & Travel Bookings
Booking.com, Agoda, and Priceline allow travelers to book hotels, vacation rentals, flights, rental cars, and other travel services.

Accommodation is Booking's largest business, connecting travelers with hotels and vacation rentals around the world.

💳 2. Agency & Merchant Models
Booking earns money from travel bookings in two ways:

• Agency Model: Travelers typically pay the accommodation directly, and Booking earns a commission from the provider.

• Merchant Model: Booking handles the customer’s payment, pays the travel provider, and keeps its agreed share.

The merchant model also makes it easier to offer flexible payments, package deals, and additional travel services.

🔎 3. Travel Search & Restaurant Reservations
Through KAYAK, momondo, Cheapflights, and HotelsCombined, travelers can compare prices across travel providers. These platforms earn revenue from advertising and referrals.

OpenTable helps customers discover and reserve restaurants, generating revenue from restaurant software, subscriptions, and reservation fees.

How Booking Holdings Makes Money 💰
Booking generates revenue through four sources:

🏨 Booking Commissions: Fees from accommodation and other travel reservations.
💳 Merchant Bookings: Revenue from bookings where Booking handles customer payments.
📢 Advertising & Referrals: Fees from advertising and directing customers to travel providers
🍽️ Restaurant Services: Revenue from OpenTable’s reservations and restaurant software.

Booking benefits from a large network of travelers and accommodation providers. More properties attract more customers, and more customers encourage additional properties to join.

Its asset-light business model allows Booking to grow without owning hotels or airplanes. Through its Connected Trip strategy, the company is also bringing more travel services together, giving customers more reasons to return and book directly through its platforms.

Revenue Breakdown

On August 4, 2026, Booking Holdings reported its Q2 2026 results. Total revenue reached $7.35 billion (+8% YoY), supported by continued travel demand. The company recorded 325 million room nights (+5% YoY) and $51.0 billion in gross bookings (+9% YoY).

Booking reports its revenue across three categories:

💳 Merchant – $5.13 billion (70%)
Booking’s largest revenue source, coming from reservations where customers pay directly through Booking’s platforms. Merchant revenue increased 15% YoY, as more travelers booked accommodation through this model.

🏨 Agency – $1.90 billion (26%)
Revenue from bookings where travelers typically pay the accommodation provider directly, and Booking receives a commission. Agency revenue declined 7% YoY, as more bookings moved to the merchant model.

📢 Advertising & Other – $322 million (4%)
Revenue from advertising, travel referrals, restaurant services, and other activities. This category grew 8% YoY.

The merchant model now accounts for around 70% of Booking’s total revenue. This means more customers pay directly through Booking’s platforms, making it easier for the company to offer additional travel services and earn more from each booking.

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Recent Developments

Booking Holdings has made important changes to its business over the past year. AI, new advertising opportunities, cost savings, European regulations, and leadership changes are all playing a role in the company's future.

Here are the key developments:

1️⃣ AI & Connected Trip Strategy
Booking is investing more in AI to make travel planning and booking easier. Booking.com has introduced its AI Trip Planner, Priceline offers its AI assistant Penny, and OpenTable has developed an AI Concierge. In May 2026, Booking.com also introduced a way for travelers to search for rental cars through ChatGPT.

These developments are part of Booking’s Connected Trip strategy, which helps customers book hotels, flights, rental cars, attractions, and other travel services in one place. The goal is to make travel planning easier and encourage customers to book more services through Booking’s platforms. Booking is already seeing benefits from AI, including lower customer service costs per booking.

2️⃣ New European Rules for Booking.com
Booking.com is subject to the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), which sets new rules for large online platforms. Hotels now have more freedom to offer lower prices or better deals through their own websites and other booking platforms. In September 2026, Booking made further changes to its hotel partner programs and pricing rules. These rules could increase competition and put pressure on Booking’s commissions in Europe.

3️⃣ Etraveli Acquisition Blocked, Partnership Extended
Booking planned to acquire flight booking company Etraveli for €1.63 billion, but European regulators blocked the deal over competition concerns. In September 2026, an EU court confirmed that decision. Booking and Etraveli extended their existing partnership for another eight years in June 2025. This means Booking can continue offering flights through its platforms without owning Etraveli. Flights are an important part of Booking’s Connected Trip strategy.

4️⃣ Launch of BKNG Ads
In May 2026, Booking introduced BKNG Ads, bringing advertising opportunities across its travel brands into one business. Hotels, airlines, and other travel companies can use Booking’s platforms to reach customers who are already searching for trips and accommodation. This gives Booking another way to grow advertising revenue, in addition to the money it earns from travel bookings.

5️⃣ Transformation Program & Cost Savings
Booking has been working on a Transformation Program to reduce costs and make its business more efficient. The company expects the program to deliver around $650 million in annual cost savings by the end of 2027. Booking has also kept its fixed operating costs under control. In 2025, revenue grew 13%, compared to 7% growth in adjusted fixed operating expenses. The goal is to improve profit margins and free up more money for investments in AI, technology, and future growth.

Source: Booking Holdings Investor Presentation August 2026

6️⃣ New FTC Investigation in the United States
In October 2026, Reuters reported that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) was preparing possible legal action against Booking Holdings. The investigation concerns potentially misleading hotel advertisements and unexpected fees linked to a third-party booking website. According to the report, Booking could face more than $500 million in potential penalties. No final decision has been announced, but the investigation creates another legal risk for the company.

7️⃣ Leadership Changes at KAYAK and Priceline
Booking has also made changes to the leadership of two of its travel brands. In January 2026, Brigit Zimmerman became CEO of Priceline, replacing Brett Keller after his retirement. Zimmerman previously served as Priceline’s Chief Commercial Officer.

In February 2026, Peer Bueller became CEO of KAYAK, replacing co-founder Steve Hafner. Hafner became Executive Chair at KAYAK and took on a new role at Booking Holdings focused on AI innovation.

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Fundamental Analysis

Now it’s time for the fundamental analysis of Booking.

In this section, we evaluate three key areas: management, market, and financials & growth estimates. Each area contains multiple elements and each element is scored individually, leading to a final score between 0 and 100.

Final Scoring

This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe Booking is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

Unlock our scoring framework and full fundamental analysis below, and see how we score Booking on a scale from 0 to 100 — exclusively available to our paid members! ✨

First, let’s walk through our scoring framework 📊👇

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Every interview follows the same set of sharp, insightful questions — such as “What is your investment strategy?”, “What are your highest conviction stocks?”, and “If you could give one piece of advice to investors, what would it be?”

✨ All Investor Talk editions are now unlocked 🔓 and free to read for everyone. Dive in, get inspired, and take your investing to the next level 🚀

👉 Check out all previous Investor Talks here
Including interviews with Brian Feroldi (Founder of Long Term Mindset), Shay Baloor (Chief Marketing Strategist of Futurum Equities) and Gav Blaxberg (CEO of WOLF Financial).

In this edition, we have the pleasure of interviewing:

Name: Timothy Assi
Age: 36
Residence/Country: Grimbergen, Belgium
Invests since: 2017

Introduction
I’m a physiotherapist by profession, with no finance background at all. In 2017, I bought my first stock, and in February 2020, I started building my public track record on eToro. Just days later, COVID crashed the market. Instead of selling, I doubled down on Bitcoin and big tech, and the portfolio rebounded strongly.

In 2021, I reached Elite status. Today, I’m an Elite Pro Investor, with 345 people copying my portfolio and $1.2M in assets under copy.

Alongside that, I built Panic Drop (newsletter, podcast, and X) and Pinfolio, a portfolio analytics app. I also use AI agents to automate parts of my investing process.

What is your investment strategy?
Momentum value, with roughly 80% in stocks and 20% in crypto. For my long-term investments, I first make sure a company has a wide moat and can grow earnings in a sustainable and predictable way.

I then buy in layers around support levels, where I believe the risk/reward is attractive, and give the investment time to play out. If a company’s earnings are less predictable, I might still take a position, but only as a trade. My investments never become trades.

All of those things need to align before I take a position.

How many stocks are currently held in your portfolio?
About 25 individual stocks, plus a few ETFs and a crypto allocation.

Which sectors do you mainly focus on?
Technology (software, semiconductors and cybersecurity), financial infrastructure (payments and financial data), healthcare and crypto.

What are your 3 highest conviction stocks?
Nvidia, Meta and S&P Global. Nvidia and Meta are my 2 biggest stock positions, and I keep adding to S&P Global because I believe the market is underestimating it.

What is the stock in your portfolio with the highest return?
Palantir. I bought my first shares in August 2022 at $8.80, and that first buy is up over 2,000%.

What is the biggest investing mistake you have made?
In 2020 I sold Amazon after a 40% gain, and then had to buy it back higher. That's when I learned to never sell a winner too early.

If you could give one piece of advice to investors, what would it be?
Don't be scared of big moves in a stock. If you want a 10 bagger, you have to avoid selling too early.

Timothy’s Favorites

📖 Favorite book: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

🎧 Favorite podcast: De 7. My own Panic Drop podcast is inspired by it: brief points on what happened the day before, a quick way to catch up on the news that matters.

💬 Favorite quote: "Cheap crap is still crap." – Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader.
Focus on the winners, not on cheap stocks that can get even cheaper. Go for number 1, not number 2.

👤 Favorite FinX account: Finom Group @GroupFinom

Where can we find more info about you?
Substack:
X: @timoassi
eToro: https://etoro.tw/4dZp58U
Pinfolio: pinfolio.ai

That’s a wrap!
Want more real-world investing insights? 👉 Browse all Investor Talks here

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Don’t hesitate to share your thoughts in the comments — we’d love to hear from you 💬

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That’s it for today.
We’ll see you again in the next edition of our newsletter!

Until then, invest wisely.

Vincent & Stefan
The Future Investors

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial product, security, or asset. The Future Investors does not provide personalized investment advice and is not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

Hey Investor,

Our Best Buys for October are here 🎯

Each month, we look for great companies trading at attractive valuations and highlight three stocks that currently stand out to us.

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Since December 2024, we’ve shared 66 Best Buys with our paid members.

Our Best Buys have delivered an average return of 19.4% so far. Several picks have already delivered triple-digit returns 🔥

🚀 AMD: picked at $97.35, now +551%
🚀 ASML: picked at $662.63, now +182%
🚀 Alphabet: picked at $168.95, now +103%

We focus on high-quality businesses with strong fundamentals trading at attractive valuations. As Warren Buffett famously said:

“It’s better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Learn more about how we score stocks on fundamentals in our Fundamental Scoring Framework article.

To keep looking for the best opportunities, we don't pick the same Best Buy two months in a row.

Now let’s dive into our Top 3 Best Buys for October ✨👇

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

#3: Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU)

Our first Best Buy for October is Nu Holdings, one of the fastest-growing digital banks in the world. This is already the fourth time we’ve included Nu, most recently in May. The stock is down 20% YTD and trades 30% below its all-time high from January.

But the business keeps growing fast. Nu continues to add millions of customers across Latin America and recently launched in the U.S., opening another major market for future growth.

The stock has moved lower, but the business keeps moving forward. With plenty of room to grow, we believe Nu looks very attractive at current levels.

What Happened?

Nu’s stock has been under pressure for most of this year. Investors are especially focused on credit risk in Brazil. Nu is growing its lending business and reaching more higher-risk customers. In Q2, the 90+ day NPL ratio increased to 6.9%, with much of the increase being seasonal.

There is also execution risk as Nu expands into new markets. The company is growing fast in Mexico and Colombia and recently launched in the U.S. and introduced Nu Global, its new multi-currency account for customers around the world. This opens new growth opportunities, but also takes Nu well beyond its core Latin American business.

Despite this, Nu keeps delivering strong results. In Q2, the company reached 139 million customers, revenue grew 39% YoY to $5.9 billion, and net income increased 49% to a record $1.1 billion. Its credit portfolio grew 37%, and ROE reached 33%.

Nu is still in a high-growth phase. Revenue is expected to grow around 45% this year to $22.8 billion, followed by another 24% to $28.2 billion in 2027. EPS is expected to grow around 40% this year and another 27% next year. There are very few banks in the world growing as fast as Nu.

Why Nu Holdings Looks Attractive Now

First, we always want to know if we’re looking at a strong business. And Nu clearly is. It scores 80 in our Fundamental Scorecard, which puts it in our High Quality 🔵 category. Nu has strong management, a leading position in digital banking and very strong growth estimates.

So, what are you paying for all that growth? Nu trades at a P/E of 18.4, with a forward GAAP P/E of just 15.6 for 2026 and 12.2 for 2027. This is the lowest forward P/E Nu has ever traded at, even as the company continues to grow very fast.

The PEG ratio is just 0.47, which also shows how attractive the valuation is compared with its expected earnings growth. Analysts see strong upside as well, with an average price target of $18.64, almost 39% above the current share price.

For a high-growth, high-quality business that still has a long way to grow, we believe this valuation looks very attractive. In our view, Nu offers a great combination of quality, growth and valuation.

The Future Investors (Vincent & Stefan) currently hold a position in Nu Holdings.

Fundamental Score: 80 🔵 → High Quality
Current Stock Price: $13.43

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The next two? Two strong businesses with massive moats, now attractively priced.

🛡️ One operates in a market with strong demand and very high barriers to entry.
🏗️ The other has built a powerful network that’s almost impossible to replicate.

Ready to discover our #1 and #2 Best Buys?
Get instant access as a paid member 🔓✨

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After a strong August, markets moved mostly sideways in September ↔️

In this recap, we look at how the major indexes performed in September, how our portfolios did compared to the market, which stocks were our biggest winners and losers, and the changes we made during the month.

Dive into our full September Recap below 👇

📢 Our Best Buys for October are coming early next week — don't miss it 🎯

What Moved the Markets in September

September markets moved mostly sideways, but there was a lot of news, especially around AI. The biggest theme of the month was the risk of AI. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for companies to slow the development of their most advanced AI models. Sam Altman and Elon Musk agreed that AI needs stronger controls.

Nvidia responded with its new Open Agent Safety Platform, designed to keep AI agents under control and stop them from accessing systems they shouldn’t. The company also increased its share buyback to $150 billion.

President Donald Trump hosted leaders from many of the world’s largest AI companies and officially changed the government’s wording from Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence.

Anthropic launched several new Claude models and filed its IPO prospectus, with a potential valuation above $2 trillion. OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra and Dots, always-on AI agents that can connect to apps, complete tasks and keep working for users.

Meta launched Muse, its personal AI agent, and connected it with Shopify, PayPal and Plaid to help users shop, pay and manage purchases with AI. It also launched Muse for small businesses and the new Meta Enterprise Platform for companies. Microsoft introduced a major Copilot upgrade built around Home, Code and Autopilot.

Alphabet launched Gemini 4 Argon, its most advanced AI model yet, with big improvements in coding and cybersecurity. Synopsys signed a $1 billion+ deal with Amazon for custom chip design and partnered with OpenAI to build GPT-Synopsys, an AI model made specifically for chip design.

Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo, its first foldable iPhone and one of the biggest changes to the iPhone in years.

There was plenty of movement in individual stocks as well. Lululemon dropped sharply after disappointing earnings, and FICO fell almost 50% during the month after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac opened the door to VantageScore 4.0, putting pressure on FICO’s moat and pricing power.

Uber cut around 3,300 jobs and is putting more money into rides, delivery and autonomous vehicles. Uber and Wayve launched autonomous rides in London, and Waymo is preparing robotaxi launches in Tokyo and Singapore.

Nu expanded beyond Latin America into the U.S., launching checking, savings and credit products. It also introduced Nu Global, a multi-currency financial platform, and is in early talks to acquire UK digital bank Monzo.

Novo Nordisk rebranded to Novo and presented its post-Wegovy growth plan, targeting more than five new blockbuster launches by 2030 and over DKK 150 billion in risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035. Novo also partnered with Anthropic to bring Claude into drug discovery and R&D.

September also brought important management changes. Adobe named Anil Chakravarthy as its next CEO, replacing Shantanu Narayen. MongoDB CEO CJ Desai left to lead Meta’s new enterprise AI business, with Dev Ittycheria stepping in as interim CEO.

Salesforce agreed to acquire Listen Labs, an AI platform that uses agents to run customer research and analyze feedback. Grab acquired a controlling stake in BNPL platform Atome.

Finally, AMD acquired World Labs, the spatial intelligence company founded by Fei-Fei Li, and reached a $1 trillion market cap for the first time.

How did the markets perform in September? Here's how the three major indexes ended the month:

• S&P 500: -0.5% 📉 (+11.8% YTD)

• Nasdaq: +1.9% 📈 (+15.6% YTD)

• Dow Jones: -4.3% 📉 (+5.9% YTD)

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Portfolio Performance: How Did We Do?

How did our portfolios perform in September?

We compare our performance with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, look at our biggest winners and losers, and walk you through the portfolio changes we made during September.

Dive into the full recap below 👇
Available exclusively for our paid subscribers ✨

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AI is changing the world in more and more ways, transforming how we work, search for information, create content and communicate. Now, AI is also starting to change how we discover products, shop online and ultimately pay.

Today, we still search for products, compare different websites and complete the checkout ourselves. But AI agents are starting to take over more of these steps. They can help discover products, compare options and even complete parts of the purchase for us. This is called agentic commerce.

And this shift is starting to accelerate, as AI platforms, retailers and payment companies race to shape the future of AI-powered shopping.

So what happens when AI starts doing more of the shopping for us?

In this article, we’ll look at:

🤖 What agentic commerce is and how it works
🛒 How agentic commerce will change the shopping journey
📈 How big the opportunity could become
♟️ The key players and where they fit in the ecosystem
🏆 Which companies we think are best positioned

🤖 What Is Agentic Commerce?

Agentic commerce is the next step in online shopping, where AI agents can do more than just recommend products or answer questions.

Today, consumers still do most of the work themselves. We search for products, visit different websites, compare options, add items to the cart, complete the checkout and make the payment. With agentic commerce, the shopping journey starts to look very different.

Instead of doing everything ourselves, we can simply tell an AI agent what we are looking for. The agent can search for products, compare prices, check reviews, look at stock and delivery times, and help complete the purchase for us.

For example:
“Find me the best wireless headphones under $100. Compare the reviews, find the best deal and have them delivered by tomorrow.”

The agent may still ask for approval before buying, or complete the purchase automatically within limits set by the user.

The visual below shows how traditional e-commerce compares with agentic commerce.

Source: The Future Investors Research. Visual created with AI.

The biggest difference is that AI is moving from helping us shop to taking action for us. That could make AI agents a new layer between consumers and online stores, affecting which products we see, where we buy them and how we pay.

🛒 How Shopping Will Change

Agentic commerce will change where shopping starts, how products are found and who owns the customer relationship.

Today, many purchases still begin on Google, Amazon, social media or a retailer’s own website. As AI agents become part of shopping, more of that journey will start inside the AI assistant. That will also change what matters for retailers. A good-looking website will still matter, but AI agents will rely more on clear product data, price, stock, reviews and delivery information. Retailers will need to make this information easy for AI agents to access, understand and compare.

Source: The Future Investors Research. Visual created with AI.

The first signs are already here. Meta’s Muse can perform shopping tasks for users, and Shopify is opening its merchant network to AI platforms and shopping assistants. Shopify is already seeing the effect: in Q1 2026, AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores grew 8× year over year, and orders from AI-powered searches increased almost 13×.

Checkout will change too. More of the purchase can happen inside the AI experience itself, and payment companies are already building tools that connect AI agents with carts, checkout systems and payments. This could also change digital advertising. If AI agents choose which products to show, brands may need to compete for visibility inside AI systems, not just on search engines and social media.

Trust will become more important as well. Consumers need to know when an AI agent can buy automatically and when it needs approval.

That leads to a key question:

“Who owns the customer when the shopping journey starts with an AI agent?”

Some companies will make their products and services available to as many AI agents as possible. Others will try to keep shoppers inside their own platform. Agentic commerce will shift more power toward the companies that control discovery, product access, checkout and payments.

📈 The Opportunity

Agentic commerce is still at an early stage, but the numbers show how quickly it could grow. Mastercard expects more than 300 million online shoppers to regularly use AI agents to shop and pay by 2030, more than 1 in 10 online shoppers worldwide.

Other forecasts show how large the financial opportunity could become. By 2030, AI agents could be involved in $1.5 trillion to $5 trillion worth of transactions globally. Accenture also estimates that more than 30% of online commerce could run through AI agents by 2030, representing around $3.1 trillion in transactions.

Sources: Mastercard, Accenture and industry forecasts. Visual created with AI.

The estimates are not all the same, but they show one thing clearly: agentic commerce could become a major new channel for global commerce.

Adoption will not happen overnight. Trust, security and clear rules around identity, consent and authorization will be important before consumers are comfortable letting AI agents spend money on their behalf. Mastercard also says trust will play a big role in how quickly agentic commerce becomes widely used.

The opportunity is not only about more online sales. It also creates new opportunities across AI platforms, e-commerce software, checkout, payments and payment networks, which is why so many companies are now racing to build a position.

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♟️ The Key Players

Agentic commerce is changing every part of the shopping journey, from the AI assistant and product discovery to checkout, payments and trust. Below are the key players in each part of the market.

🤖 AI Agents & Consumer Interfaces

These are the platforms where consumers can start the shopping journey with AI.

Source: Company websites. Interfaces are illustrative.

1️⃣ OpenAI (ChatGPT)
ChatGPT lets users discover, compare and buy supported products directly inside the chat. OpenAI’s Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), developed with Stripe, connects merchants with ChatGPT across product discovery and checkout. In March 2026, OpenAI expanded shopping with visual browsing and side-by-side product comparisons.

2️⃣ Alphabet (Gemini)
Google combines Gemini, Search, Shopping, Google Pay and the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP). UCP was developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target and Walmart and is supported by more than 20 major companies. UCP-powered checkout is now rolling out in AI Mode and Gemini, starting with Etsy and Wayfair, with Shopify, Target and Walmart coming next.

3️⃣ Meta (Muse)
Muse is becoming a full shopping agent. It started with access to the Shopify catalog, and Meta has now added Walmart, Best Buy, Sephora, Wayfair and other major retailers. Shop Pay and PayPal are being added for payments, Expedia for travel and Instacart for grocery. Plaid connects financial accounts, and Muse can also use Stripe’s Link at more than 1 million businesses. Meta is bringing Muse to AI glasses and has introduced Muse Charm, a pocket-sized device for talking directly with Muse.

4️⃣ Anthropic (Claude)
Anthropic is focused on helping companies build their own shopping agents. In September 2026, it released Claude Commerce Agents for consumers and merchants across retail, travel, telecom and entertainment. The tools help shoppers browse and buy products, and help retailers manage inventory, pricing and promotions. Salesforce is bringing Claude Commerce Agents into Commerce Cloud, and Mastercard is making Anthropic’s commerce agent tools available through its Agent Suite for Merchants.

5️⃣ Microsoft (Copilot)
Microsoft is building both a shopping experience in Copilot and commerce tools for businesses. Copilot Checkout lets shoppers buy directly inside Copilot. On the business side, Dynamics 365 Commerce uses MCP (Model Context Protocol) to securely connect AI agents with live data such as products, pricing, inventory, carts, orders and fulfillment. This lets retailers use their existing commerce systems for AI shopping without rebuilding everything from scratch. Microsoft’s Commerce MCP Server is currently in preview.

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🛍️ Commerce Platforms

These companies connect large numbers of products, merchants and customers.

1️⃣ Shopify
Shopify is becoming the central merchant layer for AI shopping. Its Agentic Storefronts connect merchants with ChatGPT, Google AI Mode, Gemini, Microsoft Copilot, and Meta Muse. The Shopify Catalog keeps product data structured and up to date. On supported AI channels, shoppers can complete purchases through Shopify-powered checkout. Shopify also co-developed the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) with Google.

See how Shopify brings products into AI conversations 🎥👇

2️⃣ Amazon
Amazon already controls product search, reviews, Prime, logistics, and checkout. Now, it is building its own agentic tools. Alexa for Shopping can compare products, track price history, build carts, and automate purchases. Its new ‘Buy for Me’ agent can even purchase products from external brand websites. Amazon is also protecting its own ecosystem. It recently blocked Meta’s Muse agent from shopping on Amazon.com to keep control over its marketplace data.

3️⃣ Salesforce
Salesforce powers the commerce infrastructure retailers use to build and run AI-powered shopping experiences. Its Shopper Agent, Buyer Agent and Merchant Agent automate shopping and retail tasks. Commerce Cloud connects with ChatGPT, Google Search and AI Mode, and is expanding into Gemini and Claude-based commerce agents. This helps retailers make their products and shopping experiences available across different AI platforms.

💳 Checkout Infrastructure

These companies connect AI agents with merchants and help complete the purchase.

1️⃣ Stripe
Stripe powers the checkout and payments behind AI shopping. It connects AI agents with merchants, processes payments and helps prevent fraud. Stripe co-developed OpenAI’s ACP, and its Link wallet lets Muse pay at more than 1 million businesses. For other approved purchases, Link can create a single-use virtual card.

2️⃣ Adyen
Adyen connects large merchants with different AI shopping platforms. Its Agentic Feed, Agentic Cart and Agentic Payments link product data, shopping carts and payments with AI agents. Merchants can connect once and then work with different AI platforms without rebuilding their systems each time.

Source: Adyen. Visual based on Adyen Agentic product materials.

3️⃣ PayPal
PayPal connects products, carts and checkout with AI shopping assistants. Store Sync lets agents find products, build carts and complete purchases. WebMCP also helps AI agents use existing merchant websites and move shoppers into trusted PayPal checkout.

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🛡️ Payments & Trust

These companies help make sure AI agents can be identified and trusted, and can safely make payments on a user’s behalf.

1️⃣ Visa
Visa is building the trust and payment layer for AI agents through Visa Intelligent Commerce. Its Trusted Agent Protocol helps merchants verify trusted AI agents, supported by Agent Scoring and an Agentic Registry. Visa is also working with OpenAI on agentic commerce. Together with Mastercard and Ant International, it is developing a cross-network Know Your Agent (KYA) framework.

See Visa Intelligent Commerce in action 🎥👇

2️⃣ Mastercard
Mastercard is building its trust layer through Agent Pay. Its Verifiable Intent technology checks that an AI agent follows the user’s instructions and spending limits. Mastercard also launched Agent Connect, linking merchants, AI agents and payment providers, and is working with Visa and Ant International on a new cross-network Know Your Agent (KYA) framework.

3️⃣ Cloudflare
Cloudflare is building the identity and wallet layer for AI agents. Cloudflare Wallets give agents their own identity and programmable wallet, with limits on spending and where they can shop. Cloudflare also supports x402, which lets AI agents automatically pay for digital services, often using stablecoins.

Stablecoins could also become important for AI agents, enabling instant, cross-border and machine-to-machine payments. Coinbase is helping build this through x402, a system that lets AI agents pay automatically for digital services. Circle is building its Agent Stack around USDC, giving AI agents wallets and tools to make payments on their own.

We’ve now seen how agentic commerce works, how it will reshape the shopping journey, how large the opportunity could become and who the key players are in each part of the market ♟️

In the next part, we’ll reveal which companies we believe are best positioned to dominate the agentic commerce era 🏆

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🏆 Who Is Best Positioned?

We’ve seen that agentic commerce is a big opportunity and will change how people discover, shop and pay. We’ve also identified the key players. But which companies look most interesting from an investor perspective?

In this chapter, we’ll reveal which companies we believe are best positioned to dominate the agentic commerce era.

We focus only on publicly traded companies, so OpenAI, Anthropic and Stripe are excluded for now. We’ll choose one company from each of the four areas: AI agents & consumer interfaces, commerce platforms, checkout infrastructure, and payments & trust.

Let’s start with our #1 pick in AI Agents & Consumer Interfaces 🤖👇

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Some of the world’s most exciting companies stay private for years. Then, when they go public, investors finally get the chance to buy the stock.

We recently saw this with SpaceX. Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are also making plans for potential IPOs in the near future.

That usually creates a lot of excitement. But buying a newly listed stock is different from buying a company that has already been public for years. The pricing works differently, insiders may still be locked up, and the first weeks of trading can be very volatile.

So the key question is:

Should you buy the IPO, or is it better to wait?

In this article, you’ll learn:

🏛️ How an IPO works
🔥 Why IPOs can get expensive
⏳ What happens after the IPO
📊 What history tells us about IPO returns
🎯 When is the right time to buy?

🏛️ How an IPO works

An IPO, or Initial Public Offering, is the moment a private company becomes publicly traded and its shares become available to investors on a stock exchange.

Companies usually go public for a few reasons: to raise capital for growth, give founders and early investors a way to sell their shares, and increase the company’s visibility.

Before the stock starts trading, the company goes through several steps. It hires investment banks, accountants and lawyers, prepares a detailed prospectus with its financials and risks, and files the required documents with the regulator. The company also chooses which stock exchange it wants to list on, such as the Nasdaq or NYSE, and a ticker symbol that investors will use to find and trade the stock.

Next comes the roadshow, where management presents the company to large investors. Based on investor demand, the company and its investment banks set the final IPO price and decide how the shares will be allocated.

The process usually looks like this:

Source: The Future Investors, based on SEC and NYSE IPO guidance

Not all shares sold in an IPO are necessarily new shares. Some are primary shares, where the money raised goes to the company. Others can be secondary shares, sold by existing shareholders such as founders or early investors.

Want to see how an IPO works in practice? This short CNBC video explains the process using Snap as an example 🎥👇

🔥 Why IPOs Can Get Expensive

One important thing to understand is that the IPO price itself says very little about how expensive a stock is. A company may price its IPO at $30 per share, but the company can already have a very high valuation at that price. It depends on things like the number of shares outstanding, the company’s revenue, earnings, growth and how much investors are willing to pay for that growth.

Before trading starts, IPO shares are often allocated to institutional investors, such as investment funds and large asset managers. Retail investors may get limited access, or no access at all, to the official IPO price.

If demand is strong, the stock could then open at $45. That is a 50% jump from the IPO price before many retail investors even get the chance to buy. This is called the IPO pop.

Newly listed stocks can also trade at a high valuation because only a limited number of shares may be available for trading at first. Once the stock starts trading publicly, retail investors can also start buying. If a lot of investors want the stock at the same time, there can be more buyers than shares available. This can push the share price higher in a short time. And when the price starts rising, FOMO can attract even more retail investors, pushing the valuation higher.

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⏳ What Happens After the IPO

Going public is only the beginning. After the IPO, investors start getting much more information about the company and how it performs as a public business.

One of the first important moments is the first earnings report. Investors can then compare the company’s actual revenue, margins and growth with the expectations around the IPO.

The first weeks and months can also be very volatile. Only part of the company’s shares may be available for trading, and investors are still trying to find a fair price for the stock. More analysts also start following the company, which gives investors more earnings estimates and valuation models to compare.

Another important event is the lock-up period. Founders, employees and early investors are often not allowed to sell all their shares directly after the IPO. This period is often around 180 days, but it can be shorter or longer. When the lock-up ends, more shares can become available for trading. If many insiders decide to sell, the extra supply can put pressure on the stock price.

Over the next few quarters, investors get a much better picture of the company. They can see if management delivers on its plans, how margins develop, how much cash the company generates and if growth continues. The longer a company has been public, the more information you have as an investor to judge the business and its valuation.

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📊 How Do IPOs Perform?

IPOs get a lot of attention because of the jump on the first trading day. Across more than 9,000 U.S. IPOs from 1980 to 2024, the average first-day return was +18.9%. After that, the picture looks very different.

From the first closing price, IPOs returned an average of +19.1% over three years. That sounds positive, but the broader U.S. market returned +39.6% over the same period, a gap of 20.5 percentage points.

The median results were much weaker. Looking at IPOs from 1975 to 2021, the median three-year return was -25.7%. Around 60% of IPOs were below their first closing price after three years, and 38.5% had lost more than half their value.

After five years, the median return was -32.0%. A small group of very big winners helped push the average higher, but many IPOs struggled.

Source: Jay Ritter, University of Florida IPO Statistics

One important detail: the +18.9% first-day return is measured from the official IPO price. Many retail investors cannot buy at that price and only get access once the stock starts trading.

So there is a big difference between the IPO pop on Day 1 and the returns investors may see in the years after.

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🎯 When Is the Right Time to Buy?

Investors sometimes joke that IPO stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced.” That is not always true, but as we saw in the previous chapter, the excitement around an IPO does not always lead to strong returns in the years that follow.

There is no single perfect moment to buy a newly listed stock. But for long-term investors, there is usually no need to rush on the first trading day.

The first days after an IPO can be driven by excitement, limited share supply and FOMO. You still have very little public information about how the company performs as a listed business. There is also no rule that says you should wait three or six months. What matters more is the valuation compared with the company’s expected future growth.

As with any stock, you should always do a full fundamental analysis of the business, including its growth, margins, cash flow, the market, management and valuation.

With a newly listed company, there are also a few extra things to watch. Look at the first earnings reports, the lock-up period, how many shares are actually available for trading and if management is delivering on the plans presented around the IPO.

Source: The Future Investors

A fast-growing company can deserve a higher valuation. But if the stock price rises much faster than revenue and earnings expectations, you may be paying too much for that future growth.

Waiting for one or more earnings reports can help. You get more information about the business and can see if management is delivering on the growth investors expected at the IPO.

Some IPOs may already offer an attractive valuation versus growth soon after listing. Others may stay expensive for much longer.

So instead of asking “How long should I wait?”, ask:

“Is the expected growth over the coming years strong enough to justify the valuation I am paying?”

Thank you for reading! 🙏
We put a lot of love into creating this post for you. If you enjoyed it, feel free to click the ❤️ button so more people can discover it on Substack or hit the ↪️ share button to share it with friends, family and fellow investors!

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Don’t hesitate to share your thoughts in the comments — we’d love to hear from you 💬

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That’s it for today.
We’ll see you again in the next edition of our newsletter!

Until then, invest wisely.

Vincent & Stefan
The Future Investors

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial product, security, or asset. The Future Investors does not provide personalized investment advice and is not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

Every two months, we highlight a growth stock that we believe has the potential to become a multibagger over the next 5-10 years.

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Predicting the long term is never easy, and these types of selections naturally come with more uncertainty.

We’re very selective with our Rising Stars, and it’s paying off. Since January 2025, we’ve shared ten picks, currently averaging a +14.8% return, with three already up more than +60% in just a few months 🚀

You can check all previous Rising Stars here.

Today, we reveal a stock we believe has the potential to become a multibagger 🚀

This fast-growing company is becoming increasingly important in the AI boom 🔥

🚀 Strong growth: Revenue growth expected to accelerate to 37% in Q4
🤖 AI exposure: Positioned at the heart of some of the fastest-growing areas of AI
🌍 Long runway: Rising complexity is creating more demand for its technology

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Every interview follows the same set of sharp, insightful questions — such as “What is your investment strategy?”, “What are your highest conviction stocks?”, and “If you could give one piece of advice to investors, what would it be?”

✨ All Investor Talk editions are now unlocked 🔓 and free to read for everyone. Dive in, get inspired, and take your investing to the next level 🚀

👉 Check out all previous Investor Talks here
Including interviews with Brian Feroldi (Founder of Long Term Mindset), Shay Baloor (Chief Marketing Strategist of Futurum Equities) and Gav Blaxberg (CEO of WOLF Financial).

In this edition, we have the pleasure of interviewing:

Name: Oliver Cull
Age: 29
Residence/Country: UK
Invests since: 2015

Introduction
I’ve always been interested in the markets, to be honest — even before I could legally invest. Back then, I didn’t really know what I was doing, but I was already watching charts at 17 or 18.

I really started learning about accounting and business at university. By the time I was around 20, I had a solid grasp of how businesses worked, and from there it all slowly came together. I spent hours a day reading company reports, analyzing businesses and understanding the investment thesis behind them.

It was just one of those “hobbies” I picked up at a young age that turned into a profession fairly quickly.

What is your investment strategy?
I’m fairly diversified, to be honest. I don’t follow one specific “strategy.” If I think a stock is undervalued and has a strong moat compared to its peers, I’ll consider buying it when the technicals align.

I always start with the big picture, though. What theme do I want to look at? What are the 5–10 best companies within that theme? Which is the strongest company at the most attractive valuation? Does my model for that company show the potential for a 2–3x return over the next 3–5 years? That’s always what I look for. And does the chart show bullish signs, or has the price been consolidating around an attractive level for a few days?

All of those things need to align before I take a position.

How many stocks are currently held in your portfolio?
I currently own 36 stocks.

Which sectors do you mainly focus on?
Right now, I’m fairly diversified across a few different themes:

• AI infrastructure (of course), specifically photonics and interconnects.

• I have quite a few commodity plays right now, including solar, copper, silver and scandium.

• I have a strong allocation to AI adopters, mainly $LMND.

• I’m building out my robotics exposure, currently with a big position in $OUST, but I’m looking to expand this.

• I’ve done well in healthcare/biotech recently too, with $ABCL selling for a +100% return. I own 2–3 other healthcare stocks now that I’m happy to hold for a while.

• Stablecoins/tokenization is the other big theme for me at the moment.

What are your 3 highest conviction stocks?
Right now I'd say:

1. $AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics
2. $OUST | Ouster
3. $COIN | Coinbase
4. $LMND | Lemonade, because I can't exclude this name

What is the stock in your portfolio with the highest return?
That I still currently hold it would be $NBIS. I have multiple stocks over 100% that are unrealized. I have also sold many this year for over 100% gains.

What is the biggest investing mistake you have made?
My biggest realized loss so far has been $HIMS where it was a medium sized position that lost 46%.

If you could give one piece of advice to investors, what would it be?
If you can’t explain your thesis behind a stock in less than 100–200 words, then it’s probably not a good thesis. Secondly, if you can’t build a conservative model (without tweaking the numbers) that gives you at least a 2x return over the next 3 years, then I don’t think it’s a good investment.

One more thing (I know you asked for one piece of advice, but here’s my third): DO NOT FOMO into stocks. I see it over and over again on FinX.

Oliver’s Favorites

📖 Favorite book: Poor Charlie's Almanack by Charlie Munger

🎧 Favorite podcast: The All-In Podcast @theallinpod

💬 Favorite quote: "The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." – Peter Thiel

👤 Favorite FinX account: I find a lot of value in Paradis @ParadisLabs

Where can we find more info about you?
X: @MMMTwealth
Substack:
Website: beta.mmmtwealth.com

That’s a wrap!
Want more real-world investing insights? 👉 Browse all Investor Talks here

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Thank you for reading! 🙏
We put a lot of love into creating this post for you. If you enjoyed it, feel free to click the ❤️ button so more people can discover it on Substack or hit the ↪️ share button to share it with friends, family, and fellow investors!

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Don’t hesitate to share your thoughts in the comments — we’d love to hear from you 💬

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That’s it for today.
We’ll see you again in the next edition of our newsletter!

Until then, invest wisely.

Vincent & Stefan
The Future Investors

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial product, security, or asset. The Future Investors does not provide personalized investment advice and is not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

Welcome to the 16th edition of Unpacked, our monthly series where we take a deep dive into a company. This time, we’re taking a closer look at Bloom Energy — a leader in onsite power generation, delivering clean, reliable, and scalable power to multiple industries, with growing demand from AI data centers.

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We break down its story, business model, and highlight the latest developments.

Additionally, we do a detailed fundamental analysis, diving into the company’s management, market, financials, and growth estimates. We score each area separately, leading to a final score between 0 and 100. This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe the company is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

The goal? To give you a full deep dive into this company, as a complement to your own research, so you can decide if it’s the right investment for you.

Now let’s unpack the fundamentals of Bloom Energy and see how we score it!

History and Business Model

Bloom Energy was founded in 2001 by KR Sridhar and a team of engineers, originally under the name Ion America.

The story behind Bloom started even earlier. Before founding the company, Sridhar led a team working on technology for NASA’s Mars program. The goal was to build a system that could use resources on Mars to produce oxygen and fuel for astronauts.

When NASA changed its plans for the Mars program, Sridhar and his team discovered that the technology could also be used in another way: to produce electricity on Earth.

This became the foundation for the Bloom Energy Server, which uses solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) to turn fuels such as natural gas or biogas into electricity. The idea was simple: businesses could produce reliable power directly at their own location, instead of getting all their electricity from the power grid.

In 2006, Bloom started its first field test at the University of Tennessee. Two years later, the company commercially launched the Bloom Energy Server. Early customers included Google, Walmart, Coca-Cola, FedEx, and Bank of America.

In 2010, Bloom officially introduced the Bloom Energy Server to the public at a major event in California. The technology, often called the “Bloom Box” at the time, received widespread attention and put Bloom Energy on the map.

Source: Bloom Energy — KR Sridhar at the Bloom Energy Server launch, 2010

Bloom continued to grow. In 2011, it completed its first microgrid, and in 2013, the company entered Japan and started supplying power to data centers.

In 2018, Bloom Energy went public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BE. In the years that followed, the company increased production and expanded into new markets, including South Korea.

More recently, data centers and AI infrastructure have become a major growth opportunity for Bloom. AI data centers need huge amounts of reliable electricity, but getting enough power from the grid can take years. Bloom can solve part of this problem by producing electricity directly at the data center, with systems that can be installed much faster.

Today, Bloom has grown from technology originally developed for Mars into a major provider of onsite power for data centers, manufacturers, utilities, and other energy-intensive businesses.

Its mission is:

“to make clean, reliable energy affordable for everyone in the world.”

Business Model Explained

Bloom Energy helps companies generate reliable electricity directly at their own location. This is especially useful for businesses that need a lot of power, such as data centers, factories, and utilities.

At the center of Bloom’s business are two technologies:

⚡ 1. Energy Server
The Energy Server is Bloom’s core product. It uses solid oxide fuel cells to turn natural gas, biogas, or hydrogen into electricity without combustion. The systems are installed directly at or near the customer’s location and can be expanded when more power is needed.

💧 2. Electrolyzer
The Bloom Electrolyzer uses the same core technology in reverse to produce hydrogen from water and electricity. The hydrogen can then be used for energy, industrial processes, or as a cleaner fuel.

Source: Bloom Energy — Energy Server (left) and Electrolyzer (right) / AI-generated

How Bloom Energy Makes Money 💰
Bloom earns its revenue from:

⚡ Sales of Energy Servers and Electrolyzers
🏗️ Installation of its systems
🔧 Service and maintenance
🔌 Selling electricity through energy agreements

Bloom sells and installs its systems, then continues to earn revenue through service, electricity agreements, and customers adding more power capacity over time.

Revenue Breakdown

On July 28, 2026, Bloom Energy reported its Q2 2026 results. Total revenue reached a record $1.07 billion (+166% YoY), passing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.

⚡ Product – $935 million (88%)
Bloom’s largest source of revenue, coming from sales of its Energy Servers and Electrolyzers. Product revenue increased 215% YoY.

🏗️ Installation – $51 million (5%)
Revenue from installing Bloom’s systems at customer locations. Installation revenue increased 36% YoY.

🔧 Service – $69 million (6%)
Revenue from servicing and maintaining Bloom systems after they are installed. Service revenue increased 27% YoY.

🔌 Electricity – $10 million (1%)
Revenue from electricity generated by Bloom systems and sold directly to customers under energy agreements.

The revenue mix shows that Bloom is very dependent on product sales, with around 88% of Q2 revenue coming from products. As Bloom sells more systems, it can also earn more from installation, service, and electricity sales.

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Recent Developments

Bloom Energy has entered an important new phase. AI and data centers have become a much bigger part of the business, with major partnerships, more customers, faster installations, and new leadership.

Here are the key developments:

1️⃣ Major AI Partnership with Oracle
In July 2025, Bloom announced a partnership with Oracle to power selected Oracle data centers in the U.S. The first project was completed in just 55 days, showing how quickly Bloom can bring new power online. In April 2026, the partnership became much larger. Oracle agreed to buy up to 2.8 GW of Bloom fuel cell systems, with the first 1.2 GW already contracted and being installed across Oracle projects in the U.S.

2️⃣ Brookfield Partnership Grows to $25 Billion
In October 2025, Bloom announced a $5 billion partnership with Brookfield to build and finance power projects for AI data centers. In June 2026, the partnership was expanded from $5 billion to $25 billion. The money can be used to finance Bloom-powered AI infrastructure projects around the world.

3️⃣ Growing AI & Data Center Business
AI and data centers have become an important market for Bloom. The company now works with nearly two dozen AI infrastructure customers, with around 250 MW of capacity, up from almost zero in this market two years ago. Bloom has already installed hundreds of megawatts of power at data centers. The company also says its technology has been approved by all major U.S. hyperscalers and more than a dozen neoclouds, AI labs, and data center operators. Customers and partners include Oracle, Equinix, CoreWeave, Brookfield, AEP, and MiTAC.

4️⃣ Large Backlog Supports Future Growth
At the end of 2025, Bloom reported around $20 billion in total backlog, including approximately $6 billion in product backlog, which was about 2.5x higher YoY. Since then, demand has continued to grow, supported by major AI and data center projects.

5️⃣ New Leadership
Bloom has also added several new leaders. In 2026, Simon Edwards became CFO. He previously served as CEO and CFO of AI chip company Groq and held senior finance roles at several technology companies. In 2025, Bloom also hired Aaron Hoover to lead business and corporate development and added former SAP co-CEO Jim Snabe to its Board of Directors.

6️⃣ Power Connect Makes Installations Faster
In August 2026, Bloom introduced Power Connect, a new system designed to make Energy Server installations faster. More of the electrical work is completed and tested in the factory before the equipment arrives at the customer. Bloom says this can reduce onsite installation time by more than 40%.

Source: Bloom Energy — Power Connect

7️⃣ Bloom Energy Joins the S&P 500
On September 4, 2026, it was announced that Bloom Energy will join the S&P 500. The change will take effect before the market opens on September 21, 2026. Bloom will replace Molson Coors Beverage in the index, marking another important milestone for the company.

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Fundamental Analysis

Now it’s time for the fundamental analysis of Bloom Energy.

In this section, we evaluate three key areas: management, market, and financials & growth estimates. Each area contains multiple elements and each element is scored individually, leading to a final score between 0 and 100.

Final Scoring

This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe Bloom Energy is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

Unlock our scoring framework and full fundamental analysis below, and see how we score Bloom Energy on a scale from 0 to 100 — exclusively available to our paid members! ✨

First, let’s walk through our scoring framework 📊👇

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Hey Investor,

Our Best Buys for September are here 🎯

Each month, we look for great companies trading at attractive valuations and highlight three stocks that currently stand out to us.

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Since December 2024, we’ve shared 63 Best Buys with our paid members.

Our Best Buys have delivered an average return of 22% so far. Several picks have delivered triple-digit returns 🔥

🚀 AMD: picked at $97.35, now +369%
🚀 ASML: picked at $662.63, now +148%
🚀 Alphabet: picked at $168.95, now +103%

We focus on high-quality businesses with strong fundamentals trading at attractive valuations. As Warren Buffett famously said:

“It’s better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Learn more about how we score stocks on fundamentals in our Fundamental Scoring Framework article.

To keep looking for the best opportunities, we don't pick the same Best Buy two months in a row.

Now let’s dive into our Top 3 Best Buys for September ✨👇

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

#3: Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO)

Our first Best Buy for September is one of the highest-quality companies in the market today: Broadcom.

This is the first time we’ve included Broadcom in our Best Buys list. The stock is up just 3% YTD and currently trades 28% below its all-time high reached in early June.

Broadcom has become a key player in the AI boom, with its chips and networking solutions helping power the massive buildout of AI infrastructure. After the recent pullback, we believe current levels offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

What Happened?

Broadcom shares have been under pressure since reaching an all-time high in early June. The stock had already gained a lot thanks to AI, pushing expectations to very high levels and leaving little room for disappointment.

The latest Q3 FY2026 results were actually very strong. Revenue jumped 86% YoY to $29.59B and adjusted EPS nearly doubled to $3.32. Both came in slightly above expectations. AI was once again the big growth driver. AI chip revenue surged 221% YoY to $16.7B. Broadcom expects this to reach $21.7B in Q4, an incredible 236% increase YoY.

Source: EarningsTime, Broadcom Q3 FY26 Earnings Release

Still, the stock fell after hours as the Q4 outlook came in slightly below Wall Street expectations. Broadcom expects revenue of $34.8B, compared to the $34.97B expected by Wall Street. That would still be an impressive 93% increase YoY. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to come in at around 68%.

Broadcom also raised its longer-term AI outlook. The company now expects AI revenue to reach $115B in FY2027 and around $230B in FY2028. That means AI revenue could double again in just one year.

These are incredible growth numbers for a company of Broadcom’s size. The stock has come down significantly, but the business is still performing very well, especially in AI.

Why Broadcom Looks Attractive Now

As we mentioned before, Broadcom is one of the best companies in the world. It has excellent management, a strong moat, a huge and growing market, and impressive growth. Broadcom scores 85 in our Fundamental Scoring Framework, which falls in the 🔵 High Quality category.

But what are you paying for all that quality? At first sight, Broadcom looks quite expensive with a P/E ratio of 45.6. But that number doesn’t tell the full story. Broadcom is growing very fast.

For FY2026, GAAP EPS is expected to reach $9.03, bringing the forward P/E below 40. Looking one year further ahead, GAAP EPS is expected to jump to around $16.50 in FY2027. At the current share price, that brings the forward P/E down to just 21.6.

That looks very attractive for a company growing this fast. Revenue and earnings are expected to grow between 65% and 70% this year and next year, and AI revenue is growing at triple-digit rates.

How many companies can you find with Broadcom’s quality, growth and strong market position at a forward P/E of around 22 based on next year’s earnings? Not many. At the current price, we believe Broadcom offers a very attractive opportunity for long-term investors.

The Future Investors (Vincent & Stefan) currently do not hold a position in Broadcom.

Fundamental Score: 85 🔵 → High Quality
Current Stock Price: $357.16

View our Portfolios

The next two? Two high-quality businesses with strong competitive positions at very attractive valuations.

📱 One sits at the center of how millions discover and engage with content.
🎯 The other uses AI and data to help businesses reach the right customers.

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After a volatile and relatively weak July, August was a strong month for the market 📈

In this recap, we look at how the major indexes performed in August, how our portfolios did compared to the market, which stocks were our biggest winners and losers, and the changes we made during the month.

Dive into our full August Recap below 👇

📢 Our Best Buys for September are coming this week — don't miss it 🎯

What Moved the Markets in August

August was a strong month for investors, with the major U.S. indexes moving higher. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the U.S. economy is strong, but inflation is still too high at 3.7%. Bringing inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target is still the priority.

August was a big month for earnings, with Nvidia once again taking center stage. Revenue reached $96.2 billion, while Nvidia expects $108 billion next quarter, ahead of the $104 billion analysts expected. The company expects 70% revenue growth in FY2028, well above the 45% the market had expected.

Palantir reported exceptional results, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 149%, its Rule of 40 reaching 155 and free cash flow margin of 63%. Salesforce delivered strong results and expanded its partnership with Anthropic through Claudeforce. Shares jumped more than 20%, lifting other software stocks. Is the SaaSpocalypse now cancelled?

The Trade Desk went in the opposite direction. The company missed revenue expectations and guided for $650 million in Q3 revenue, well below the $804 million expected. Shares fell sharply following the results.

Meta reached a settlement of up to $18 billion over claims that Facebook and Instagram were designed to addict children. The company agreed to introduce stricter limits for teenagers using its platforms.

AI infrastructure attracted massive investments. SpaceX plans to grow its AI compute capacity from 2 GW to 10 GW by 2027, powered by Nvidia GPUs. The company is planning a $100 billion Starship complex in Louisiana and a new Terafab in Grimes County. Nvidia is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a $500 billion AI infrastructure funding package for chips, power and data centers.

Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL72 racks entered production, with Microsoft becoming the first customer. OpenAI’s first custom AI chip, Jalapeño, developed with Broadcom, showed strong early results. SK hynix and SanDisk unveiled High Bandwidth Flash (HBF), while Samsung introduced zHBM to help meet the growing memory needs of AI.

Google Gemini surpassed 1 billion monthly users, while CrowdStrike introduced FalconIQ, its new AI-powered security platform. Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree made its stock market debut, with shares surging 487% on the first day.

Robotaxis continued expanding across the U.S. Amazon’s Zoox made its robotaxi debut in Las Vegas, while Nevada approved a much larger rollout of autonomous vehicles from Tesla, Waymo and Uber. Uber and Zipline partnered to bring autonomous drone deliveries to Uber Eats, and Amazon continued expanding its Prime Air drone delivery network.

In healthcare, Moderna and Merck reported strong results for their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine combined with Keytruda. The treatment significantly reduced the risk of melanoma returning or spreading, sending Moderna shares more than 100% higher.

How did the markets perform in August? Here's how the three major indexes ended the month:

• S&P 500: +2.6% 📈 (+12.3% YTD)

• Nasdaq: +3.9% 📈 (+13.5% YTD)

• Dow Jones: +1.3% 📈 (+10.7% YTD)

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Portfolio Performance: How Did We Do?

How did our portfolios perform in August?

We compare our results with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, highlight our strongest and weakest stocks, and take you through all the changes we made to our portfolios during the month.

Dive into the full recap below 👇
Available exclusively for our paid subscribers ✨

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Photonics has become one of the hottest themes in the semiconductor market. Players like Lumentum and Coherent are up more than 600% and 200% over the past year. Nvidia is also investing billions in optical technology for its next generation of AI infrastructure.

AI needs to move more data at higher speeds, and traditional copper connections are starting to reach their limits. Photonics uses light to move data faster and with less power. This is becoming more important as AI demand grows.

But with so many companies competing in this fast-growing market, which ones are in the best position?

In this article, we’ll look at:

🔦 What photonics is and why it matters now
📈 How big the photonics opportunity could become
♟️ The key players in the photonics market
⚖️ The bull and bear case for photonics
🏆 Finally, we’ll share which companies we think are in the best position to win

🔦 Photonics Explained

Before looking at the opportunity, let’s first explain what photonics is.

Computers traditionally use electrical signals to move data through copper connections. Photonics works differently. It uses light, or photons, to move information. Data is turned into light, sent through optical fiber, and then turned back into data.

The technology isn’t new. Fiber-optic networks have used light to move data over long distances for decades. But AI is creating a much bigger need for it. Modern AI systems connect thousands of GPUs that work together and constantly exchange large amounts of data. As these systems get bigger, more GPUs need to communicate with each other and exchange more data at higher speeds.

This is where copper starts to struggle. Copper isn’t going away and still works very well over short distances. But at higher speeds, the distance it can cover becomes shorter. Optical connections can move data over longer distances at high speeds, while using less power. Light can also carry multiple streams of data at the same time, increasing the amount of data a single connection can handle.

Power also matters. AI data centers require a lot of electricity, so using less power to move data becomes more important as these systems grow.

Source: NVIDIA, Intel | Visual adapted with ChatGPT

Another important development is Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). Today, optical components are typically connected to networking chips through separate modules. CPO brings the optics much closer to the chip, reducing power use and allowing more data to move faster. This could become an important part of the next generation of AI data centers.

AI doesn’t just need more computing power and memory. It also needs a faster and more efficient way to move all that data.

📈 The Photonics Opportunity

AI systems keep getting bigger and need to move more data. So how big could the opportunity for photonics become?

Goldman Sachs estimates that the aggregate networking TAM for AI systems could grow from around $15 billion with Nvidia’s GB300 NVL72 in 2026 to $154 billion with Rubin Ultra NVL576 in 2028. That’s a 9x increase in just two years. Rubin Ultra NVL576 is Nvidia’s next-generation AI system, connecting 576 GPUs across eight racks, compared with 72 GPUs in a single GB300 NVL72 rack today.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, “Optical Networking: The Next Mega Trend in AI Infrastructure” (May 2026).

A large part of this growth could come from photonics. Today, optical connections are used to connect different racks and larger parts of an AI network. As AI systems grow, optics is moving further into these systems and is being used to connect GPUs across multiple racks. Goldman Sachs estimates that the addressable market for optical modules and optical engines could grow 13x as optics expands into these new connections.

CPO could become an important part of this market. For Rubin Ultra NVL576, Goldman Sachs estimates that CPO could represent $91 billion, or 59% of the total $154 billion networking opportunity.

Connections are also getting much faster. Today’s AI networks use connections of up to 800 gigabits per second (800G). The industry is moving toward 1.6 terabits per second (1.6T) in 2026, which means a single connection can handle twice as much data. With Rubin Ultra in 2027–2028, Nvidia is expected to move toward 3.2T, doubling the capacity again.

This means the photonics opportunity is growing in two ways. AI systems need more optical connections, and those connections need to handle more data.

So far, we’ve explored why photonics is becoming increasingly important for AI infrastructure and how large the opportunity could become.

In the rest of this article, we’ll look at the key players ♟️, the bull 🐂 and bear case 🐻, and finally which companies we think are best positioned to benefit 🏆

This content is exclusively available to our paid subscribers ✨

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♟️ The Key Players

The photonics market is not one single business. Different companies play different roles across the optical supply chain, from lasers and optical components to connectivity chips and photonics manufacturing.

🔦 Optical Components & Transceivers
These companies make the hardware that turns electrical signals into light and back again.

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Investors spend a lot of time thinking about which stocks to buy. We analyze growth, financials, valuation, competition and risks. How much of a stock to own gets far less attention, but it is just as important.

So, once you’ve found a company you want to own, the next question is:

How big should the position be?

A stock that doubles may sound like a fantastic investment, but if it makes up only 1% of your portfolio, the impact on your overall return is small. A position that is too large can have a big impact when things go wrong.

There is no perfect percentage that works for every stock. There are different ways to size your positions, based on factors such as conviction, potential upside and risk.

In this article, you’ll learn:

📊 Why position sizing matters
⚖️ The different ways to size your positions
🎯 How to find the right position size
🧩 How we size positions in our portfolios

📊 Why Position Sizing Matters

Position sizing is how much of your portfolio you invest in each stock. In other words, it is about deciding how much capital you want to put behind an investment idea. It has a direct impact on how much a winner — or loser — affects your overall return.

Imagine you have a $100,000 portfolio and one of your stocks doubles:

A 1% position that doubles adds only 1% to your portfolio return. A 10% position in that stock adds 10%. The stock delivered a 100% return in both cases, but the impact on your portfolio was very different. A great stock pick can still have little impact on your overall return if the position is too small.

It also works the other way around. If a 10% position falls 50%, it reduces your portfolio by around 5%. If it was only a 2% position, the impact would be around 1%.

The key is finding the right balance:
A position should be large enough to make a difference when you are right, but not so large that one mistake can do too much damage.

Alpha Theory looked at 13 years of data from around 200 equity managers. Their actual portfolios returned 12.5% annually, compared with 8.9% when every position had the same weight. With a more systematic way of sizing positions, returns increased further to 13.7% annually.

Source: Alpha Theory — Ultimate Position Sizing Guide White Paper

The lesson is clear: what you own matters, but the size of each position matters too.

⚖️ The Different Ways to Size Your Positions

There is no single formula for how big a position should be. You can use different methods, depending on your investment style and how you think about risk and opportunity.

Here are some of the most common ways to size your positions:

Equal Weighting ↔️
Every stock starts with the same position size. If you own 20 stocks, for example, you could allocate 5% to each. It is easy to understand and prevents you from putting too much money into one idea. The downside is that it treats every investment the same, even when your conviction, potential upside or risk may be very different.

Conviction-Based Sizing 💡
The more conviction you have in an investment, the larger the position. Your highest-conviction ideas might get 5–10%, while smaller or more uncertain ideas might start at 1–3%. This gives your best ideas more influence on your portfolio, but conviction alone is not enough. You can have a lot of confidence in a company and still be wrong.

Risk-Based Sizing 🛡️
Here, position size depends on how much risk you see in an investment. A large, profitable company may justify a larger position than a smaller company with an uncertain future. The idea is simple: the more that can go wrong, the more careful you may want to be with the position size.

Upside-Based Sizing 🚀
Another option is to look at the potential return. An investment with attractive upside compared with its downside may deserve a larger allocation than one where the potential return is limited. This also helps connect your research to your portfolio. If you believe one stock offers a much better opportunity than another, should they really have the same position size?

In practice, you don’t have to choose just one method. Conviction, potential upside and risk can all play a role in deciding how much you invest.

But how do you decide what the right position size is?

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🎯 How to Find the Right Position Size

So, how do you decide if a stock should be 2%, 5% or perhaps 10% of your portfolio?

You can make this decision easier by looking at three key factors:

Conviction 💡
How strong is your investment thesis? The better you understand the company, its business and the reasons you own it, the more comfortable you may be with a larger position. But conviction should never be confused with certainty.

Potential Upside 🚀
How attractive is the opportunity at the current price? A great company is not always a great investment at any price. If you see significant upside from current levels, there may be more reason to give the stock a larger position.

Risk 🛡️
What could go wrong? A company with an uncertain business model, weak balance sheet or high execution risk may deserve a smaller position. The more risk you see, the more careful you may want to be with how much you invest.

Instead of choosing a different percentage for every stock, you can also work with position size ranges. For example:

These percentages are only an example. The right ranges depend on factors such as the number of stocks you own and how much risk you are comfortable taking. The important part is having a clear framework for your sizing decisions.

It also gives you a useful question to ask when looking at your portfolio:
Do your best investment ideas also have the largest positions?

If one of your highest-conviction ideas is only a small position, it is worth asking why. Your portfolio should reflect where your strongest investment ideas are.

If one of your strongest ideas is only 1% of your portfolio, it may have little impact even if your thesis turns out to be right. At the same time, a 10% position deserves a much higher level of confidence because getting it wrong will have a much bigger impact.

Position sizing is not about finding one perfect percentage. It is about matching the size of a position with your conviction, potential upside and risk.

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🧩 How We Size Positions in Our Portfolios

In our portfolios, we use a combination of conviction, potential upside and risk when deciding how much we want to invest in a stock. But above all, the fundamentals of the company are at the center of our decisions.

A high-conviction idea does not automatically get a large position. A company with more execution risk, for example, will usually get a smaller position. Even if the potential upside is high, we want the position size to reflect the risk that things do not go as planned. We also look beyond the individual stock. If several positions are exposed to the same risks or trends, we take that into account when deciding how much capital we want to invest.

Valuation also matters. We can have a lot of conviction in a company, but if the stock is priced for perfection, we are less likely to add more capital. That does not mean we automatically sell or trim it. As long as the fundamentals remain strong and our thesis is intact, we are comfortable letting a winner run.

This brings us to another important part of our strategy: the difference between how much we invested and how large a position has become.

Imagine we invest 5% of our portfolio in a stock and the stock triples. That original investment is now worth 15% of our starting portfolio value. That does not automatically mean the position is too large or that we should sell.

The opposite can happen with a losing position. If we invest 5% and the stock falls 50%, it is now worth around 2.5% of our starting portfolio value. That does not automatically mean we should bring it back to 5%.

This is something Peter Lynch famously described as:

“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.”

Source: Illustration created with AI. Quote by Peter Lynch.

That is exactly what we want to avoid. A smaller position is not automatically a reason to buy more, just as a larger position is not automatically a reason to sell.

This is why we pay close attention to how much capital we have invested, not only the current weight of a position. Every time we consider adding, we take a fresh look at the fundamentals, valuation, potential upside and risk. A lower stock price or smaller position alone is never a reason for us to buy more.

Of course, current position size still matters. If one stock becomes a very large part of the portfolio, the risk increases and trimming can make sense. But for us, there is an important difference between a position that becomes large because the stock performed well and one that is large because we kept adding more capital.

This gives our winners room to grow, while keeping our focus on the fundamentals, valuation and risk.

View Our Portfolios

📌 Key Takeaways

Position sizing plays an important role in your portfolio returns. A great stock can have little impact if the position is too small, while a position that is too large can hurt when things go wrong.

There is no perfect position size. The right size depends on factors such as conviction, potential upside and risk.

📊 Size matters: Even a big winner will have little impact if the position is too small.

⚖️ Balance risk and opportunity: Larger positions can have a bigger impact, both positive and negative.

🎯 Make your portfolio reflect your ideas: Your strongest investment ideas should have enough weight to make a difference.

🌱 Give winners room to grow: A larger position is not automatically a reason to sell, and a smaller position is not automatically a reason to buy more.

The goal is not to find the perfect percentage, but to give your best ideas enough weight to matter without putting too much of your portfolio at risk.

Thank you for reading! 🙏
We put a lot of love into creating this post for you. If you enjoyed it, feel free to click the ❤️ button so more people can discover it on Substack or hit the ↪️ share button to share it with friends, family and fellow investors!

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Don’t hesitate to share your thoughts in the comments — we’d love to hear from you 💬

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That’s it for today.
We’ll see you again in the next edition of our newsletter!

Until then, invest wisely.

Vincent & Stefan
The Future Investors

Disclaimer:
The information and opinions provided in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial product, security, or asset. The Future Investors does not provide personalized investment advice and is not a licensed financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Please consult the general disclaimer for more details.

Welcome to the 15th edition of Unpacked, our monthly series where we take a deep dive into a company. This time, we’re taking a closer look at Intuitive Surgical — the global leader in robotic-assisted surgery, transforming surgery through advanced robotic systems, software, and data-driven innovation.

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We break down its story, business model, and highlight the latest developments.

Additionally, we do a detailed fundamental analysis, diving into the company’s management, market, financials, and growth estimates. We score each area separately, leading to a final score between 0 and 100. This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe the company is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

The goal? To give you a full deep dive into this company, as a complement to your own research, so you can decide if it’s the right investment for you.

In case you missed it, here you can read the previous editions of Unpacked:

• Unpacked #14: IonQ

• Unpacked #13: SanDisk

• Unpacked #12: Palo Alto Networks

• Unpacked #11: Uber

• Unpacked #10: Salesforce

• Unpacked #9: Broadcom

• Unpacked #8: SoFi Technologies

• Unpacked #7: IREN Limited

• Unpacked #6: Axon

• Unpacked #5: MongoDB

• Unpacked #4: Hims & Hers

• Unpacked #3: MercadoLibre

• Unpacked #2: AppLovin

• Unpacked #1: McDonalds

Now let’s unpack the fundamentals of Intuitive Surgical and see how we score it!

History and Business Model

Intuitive Surgical was founded in 1995 by Frederic Moll, John Freund, and Robert Younge, with the idea of using robotics to make surgery less invasive and more precise.

The technology behind the company came from early research into robotic surgery. Intuitive saw the opportunity to turn this technology into a system that could be used in hospitals around the world. This led to the creation of the da Vinci Surgical System.

The first da Vinci system was launched in Europe in 1999, followed by FDA clearance in the United States in 2000. That same year, Intuitive Surgical went public on the Nasdaq under the ticker ISRG.

One of the first important uses for da Vinci was urology, especially prostate surgery. As more surgeons and hospitals started using the system, Intuitive expanded into other areas of surgery and improved its technology.

In 2006, the company launched its second-generation da Vinci S, followed by the third-generation da Vinci Si. From 2014, Intuitive introduced its fourth-generation systems, including da Vinci X, Xi, and SP. Each new generation made the technology better and allowed surgeons to use da Vinci for a wider range of procedures.

Intuitive later expanded beyond traditional surgery. In 2019, it launched Ion in the United States, a robotic-assisted bronchoscopy platform that helps physicians reach and biopsy small nodules deep inside the lungs, with the goal of helping detect lung cancer earlier.

The latest major step came with da Vinci 5, launched in the United States in 2024 and Europe in 2025. Intuitive’s fifth-generation platform offers better ergonomics and more than 10,000x the computing power of da Vinci Xi, creating a new foundation for the future of robotic-assisted surgery.

Source: Intuitive Surgical, company history and product information

Over the past three decades, Intuitive has grown from a pioneer in robotic surgery into the global leader in robotic-assisted minimally invasive care, with its technology now used by hospitals and surgeons around the world.

Its mission is:

“We believe that minimally invasive care is life-enhancing care. Through ingenuity and intelligent technology, we expand the potential of physicians to heal without constraints.”

Business Model Explained

Intuitive Surgical has built an ecosystem around robotic-assisted minimally invasive care. Its technology helps physicians perform procedures with more precision and control, often using smaller incisions than traditional open surgery.

At the center of this ecosystem are two robotic platforms:

🤖 1. da Vinci
Da Vinci is Intuitive’s core platform and is used for robotic-assisted surgery. Surgeons control the system from a console and use robotic instruments to make precise movements while seeing the surgical area in a detailed 3D view. Da Vinci is used in areas such as urology, gynecology, general surgery, and thoracic surgery.

🫁 2. Ion
Ion expands Intuitive beyond surgery into robotic-assisted bronchoscopy. It helps physicians navigate deep into the lungs and take tissue samples from small nodules that can be difficult to reach. These samples can then be tested for diseases such as lung cancer.

Around da Vinci and Ion, Intuitive has built a broader ecosystem of instruments, accessories, training, services, and digital solutions. Tools such as My Intuitive, Intuitive Hub, and SimNow help surgeons and hospitals with training, procedure data, and insights.

How Intuitive Surgical Makes Money 💰
Intuitive earns its revenue from:

🩺 Instruments and accessories used during procedures
🤖 Sales and leases of da Vinci and Ion systems
🔧 Service and support for installed systems

What makes the business model attractive is that selling a system is only the beginning. Each installed system can generate recurring revenue for years as more procedures are performed and hospitals keep buying instruments, accessories, and services.

This creates a powerful cycle: more systems → more procedures → more recurring revenue.

Revenue Breakdown

On July 16, 2026, Intuitive Surgical reported its second quarter 2026 results. Total revenue reached $2.89 billion (+19% YoY), supported by higher procedure volumes, system leasing revenue, and a larger installed base of da Vinci and Ion systems.

🩺 Instruments & Accessories – $1.73 billion (60%)
Intuitive’s largest source of revenue. These are the instruments and accessories used during da Vinci and Ion procedures. Revenue increased 18% YoY, with da Vinci procedures growing 15% and Ion procedures 36%.

🤖 Systems – $685 million (24%)
Revenue from da Vinci and Ion systems. Intuitive placed 468 da Vinci systems during the quarter, including 246 da Vinci 5 systems, as well as 55 Ion systems.

🔧 Services – $472 million (16%)
Revenue from service and support for Intuitive’s growing installed base of systems.

The revenue mix shows the strength of Intuitive's business model: around 76% of Q2 revenue came from instruments, accessories, and services, giving Intuitive a large recurring revenue base that grows as its installed base and procedure volumes increase.

View our Portfolios

Recent Developments

Intuitive Surgical is entering a new phase. The company has new leadership, is bringing da Vinci 5 to more markets, expanding into more procedures, and investing more in software, AI, and digital technology.

Here are the key developments:

1️⃣ Dave Rosa Becomes CEO
In July 2025, Dave Rosa became CEO of Intuitive Surgical, replacing Gary Guthart after 15 years as CEO. Guthart remained with the company as Executive Chairman.

Rosa had already served as President since 2023 and has been with Intuitive since 1996. Before becoming CEO, he oversaw areas including product, digital, manufacturing, and commercial operations.

2️⃣ Da Vinci 5 Expands Globally
After launching in the U.S. in 2024, Intuitive started bringing da Vinci 5 to more international markets. The system received regulatory clearance in Japan in June 2025 and CE marking in Europe in July 2025.

Da Vinci 5 is Intuitive’s most advanced system, with more than 150 improvements and over 10,000x the computing power of da Vinci Xi.

Source: Intuitive Surgical – Da Vinci 5 product page

3️⃣ More Procedures Added to da Vinci
Intuitive continues to expand what surgeons can do with its systems. During 2025, da Vinci SP received new FDA clearances for areas including colorectal surgery, hernia repair, gallbladder removal, and appendectomy. In January 2026, da Vinci 5 was also cleared for cardiac procedures, opening another important area for the platform.

4️⃣ AI & Telesurgery
AI is becoming a bigger part of Intuitive’s strategy. In July 2026, the company introduced a five-layer AI framework, moving from surgical data and insights toward real-time guidance, augmented dexterity, and eventually supervised autonomy. The strategy builds on data from more than 20 million da Vinci procedures.

Intuitive is also advancing telesurgery. After demonstrating transatlantic telesurgery in 2025, the company conducted another live demonstration in July 2026 using da Vinci 5, Force Feedback, and shared control between surgeons in California and Georgia. The technology is still in development and not yet commercially available.

Source: Intuitive Surgical – Vision for an AI-Enabled Future of Healthcare

5️⃣ Expanding Directly in Europe
In March 2026, Intuitive completed acquisitions of several European distribution businesses, expanding its direct presence in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Malta, and San Marino. This allows Intuitive to work more directly with hospitals and surgeons in these markets instead of relying on distributors.

6️⃣ Building a Larger Intuitive Ecosystem
Intuitive continues to expand beyond its robotic systems. In May 2026, the company announced new da Vinci 5 features, telecollaboration capabilities, Force Feedback instruments, and other improvements. The company is building a broader ecosystem around robotics, instruments, software, data, training, and AI, making its platforms more useful over time.

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Fundamental Analysis

Now it’s time for the fundamental analysis of Intuitive Surgical.

In this section, we evaluate three key areas: management, market, and financials & growth estimates. Each area contains multiple elements and each element is scored individually, leading to a final score between 0 and 100.

Final Scoring

This score reflects how fundamentally attractive we believe Intuitive Surgical is as an investment, ranging from:

🔴 Below 50 → Uninvestable
🟠 50 - 59 → Questionable
🟡 60 - 69 → Reasonable
🟢 70 - 79 → Quality
🔵 80 - 89 → High-Quality
🟣 90 or above → Exceptional

Unlock our scoring framework and full fundamental analysis below, and see how we score Intuitive Surgical on a scale from 0 to 100 — exclusively available to our paid members! ✨

First, let’s walk through our scoring framework 📊👇

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